Melbourne United vs Cairns Taipans Tips | NBL26 R16

Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30pm AEDT at Red Energy Arena, with United continuing a difficult stretch away from John Cain Arena. 

Melbourne’s form has fallen sharply over the holiday period, while Cairns, despite sitting bottom of the ladder, remain competitive enough to stay within large margins. This matchup shapes as an opportunity to back the underdog.

Competition: NBL26 – Round 16

Match: Melbourne United vs Cairns Taipans

Date: Wednesday, 7 January 2026

Tip-off: 7:30 PM AEDT

Venue: Red Energy Arena, Bendigo

Getting Cairns with a 12.5-point head start is difficult to ignore given Melbourne’s current trajectory. United are on a 2–6 run and have now entered their annual eight-game stretch away from John Cain Arena, where they have struggled historically. Bendigo removes any meaningful home-court edge, and Melbourne have already lost four of their last five games outside their primary venue. Cairns may lack consistency, but the margin is generous in a matchup where Melbourne have not shown the ability to dominate.

Melbourne’s interior defence has been a major issue, conceding 20+ points to opposing centres in each of their last two games. Sam Waardenburg has returned strongly for Cairns and is averaging over 15 points per game this season. With United vulnerable inside and Cairns likely to lean on their frontcourt scoring, Waardenburg shapes as a strong points play.

Melbourne are currently the worst team in the NBL at defending the three-point line, allowing opponents to shoot 37.0% from deep. Jack McVeigh has averaged 3.1 made threes across his last nine games and remains Cairns’ primary perimeter threat. If the Taipans are to stay competitive, McVeigh’s outside shooting will be central to that effort.

United’s inability to close out shooters has plagued them throughout the season, and Cairns possess just enough perimeter talent to exploit that weakness. With McVeigh spacing the floor and Waardenburg drawing interior attention, Cairns should generate quality looks from outside.