2026 Brownlow Medal Odds: Early Reads, Live Chances & Where the Value Might Be
- Bontempelli, Daicos, and Smith are equal Brownlow favorites at midseason.
- Injuries and team form have narrowed the field to elite midfielders.
- Second half of the season could shift the leaderboard dramatically.
Matt Rowell of the Suns poses with the 2025 Brownlow Medal during a media opportunity at Crown Promenade on September 23, 2025 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Morgan Hancock/Getty Images)
The Brownlow picture is much clearer than it was a few months ago.
At the halfway mark of the season, injuries, suspensions and team form have reshaped the market, with a clear group of contenders emerging.
That doesn't mean the race is over. One big month can still change everything, particularly with several leading candidates competing for votes alongside star teammates.
The value is no longer in finding a roughie. It's in identifying which contenders can maintain their polling rate through the second half of the season.
The formula remains simple: elite midfielders, strong team performance and consistent on-ball roles. The difference now is we've got half a season of evidence to work with.
| 2026 Brownlow Medal Winner | Odds |
|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | $4.00 |
| Nick Daicos | $4.00 |
| Bailey Smith | $4.00 |
| Christian Petracca | $9.00 |
| Zak Butters | $13.00 |
| Isaac Heeney | $15.00 |
| Max Holmes | $26.00 |
| Jai Newcombe | $41.00 |
| Patrick Cripps | $41.00 |
| Rest of the field | +$51.00 |
Odds from Ladbrokes Australia and correct as of 2026-06-01
Weekly Update - Round 12
The top of the Brownlow market remains tight, with little separating the leading contenders.
Christian Petracca has firmed into $9.00 after another strong month, establishing himself as the most likely challenger to the frontrunners. Max Holmes has also entered the conversation at $26, although he may have left himself too much ground to make up on Bailey Smith ($4.00) and the other market leaders.
Patrick Cripps has shortened into $41, but with Carlton struggling for consistency, it's difficult to build a genuine Brownlow case around him at this stage of the season.
Round 11
We now have a genuine three-way dead heat at the top of the Brownlow Medal market, with Nick Daicos $4, Marcus Bontempelli $4 and Bailey Smith $4 all sharing favouritism heading into Round 12.
Smith has surged into contention off the back of Geelong’s strong recent form, polling heavily in multiple wins and continuing to build momentum week after week.
Despite Fremantle sitting on top of the AFL ladder, Luke Jackson $41 has drifted out of the leading contenders after falling away in the voting projections. The Dockers’ even midfield spread continues to make it difficult for one player to consistently dominate the votes.
Zak Butters $12 and Christian Petracca $12 remain firmly in the hunt, continuing to collect points even in losses thanks to their massive individual output.
Round 10
Nick Daicos and Marcus Bontempelli continue to trade blows at the top of the market, but inconsistent team results are preventing either player from creating real separation in the rankings.
That has opened the door for the chasing pack.
Bailey Smith’s form has exploded over the last month, while Zak Butters and Christian Petracca continue to poll strongly despite their sides not consistently winning games.
With voting spread heavily across several top teams this season, the Brownlow race is shaping as one of the tightest contests in recent memory.
Round 9
Marcus Bontempelli $4.00 has reclaimed outright favouritism in the Brownlow Medal market, moving ahead of Nick Daicos $4.75 after another dominant display. Bailey Smith $8.00 continues his rapid rise and now sits clear in third spot following a blistering month of football.
Luke Jackson $26 is the new addition to the main contenders list after a string of influential performances for Fremantle. The Dockers ruckman has been outstanding, although Fremantle’s even contribution across the midfield may limit his ability to consistently poll maximum votes.
Round 8
The Brownlow market is starting to wobble.
Nick Daicos has drifted to $3.40 despite a strong showing in Collingwood’s draw with Hawthorn, while Marcus Bontempelli has firmed into $4.50 even in a loss to Fremantle which is a sign the voting expectations aren’t always lining up with results.
Christian Petracca is into $10.50 and building a strong case off limited games, positioning as the main threat to the top two. Bailey Smith remains right in the mix, with consistency keeping him firmly in the conversation.
Round 7
Nick Daicos $2.60 has consolidated his spot at the top with Smith and Bontempelli $5.50 chasing hard.
Christian Petracca $10.50 and Zak Butters $11.50 are the only other likely contenders to be picking up points from their teams while the rest of the market is a jumble.
Christian Petracca $10.50 and Zak Butters $11.50 are the only other likely contenders to be picking up points from their teams while the rest of the market is a jumble.
Round 6
The Brownlow market shifted quickly this week.
Nick Daicos holds top spot at $3, while Marcus Bontempelli has eased to $6, now level with Bailey Smith after recent performances tightened that line.
Christian Petracca ($13) has held steady despite missing games, while Zak Butters ($15) avoided suspension and remains firmly in the mix.
Further back, Isaac Heeney ($13) and Harry Sheezel ($41) have both firmed on the back of strong team performances.
Round 5
What looked like a two-horse race early hasn’t lasted.
Daicos has reclaimed outright favouritism, Bontempelli has drifted slightly, and the chasing pack has closed the gap.
The race has opened up again and the market is starting to reflect it.
Round 4
Bontempelli has moved back into outright favouritism at $2.50 after another Bulldogs win over Easter.
Behind him, the chase pack has tightened. Zak Butters, Caleb Serong and Bailey Smith have all firmed into $17 following consistent midfield output.
Round 3
This has tightened into a two-horse race.
Marcus Bontempelli and Nick Daicos are locked at $3.00, with the market clearly separating them from the rest. That creates a watch-and-react setup as any dip from either opens the door quickly.
Zak Butters ($21) is the closest chaser, continuing to poll strongly despite Port’s inconsistency. Caleb Serong ($26) and Bailey Smith ($26) have also built steady cases through consistent midfield output.
Round 2
Marcus Bontempelli has shot up the odds rankings after another emphatic win in Round 2. The Bont has had 2 games of 30+ disposals and his team have taken down last year's premiers and minor premiers.
Nick Daicos should not be discounted given his role at Collingwood but there is murmurs in the media of his allergy to the contested footy.
Christian Petracca will miss time with injury but is still top 6 in odds interestingly enough.
Nick Daicos should not be discounted given his role at Collingwood but there is murmurs in the media of his allergy to the contested footy.
Christian Petracca will miss time with injury but is still top 6 in odds interestingly enough.
Round 1
The odds rankings have had a shake up with Errol Gulden going down with an injury that will see him miss the next few rounds. Marcus Bontempelli $5 is putting pressure on the favourite Nick Daicos $4.
Christian Petracca $6 and Noah Andersson $17 from the Suns are going to be popular bets all season long to bring the second straight Brownlow medal to the Gold Coast.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera $21 has fallen down the rankings after a quiet performance in Round 1.
Opening Round
Nick Daicos strengthened his position as Brownlow favourite after collecting 41 disposals in Collingwood’s Opening Round win over St Kilda. The dominant performance pushed him further ahead in early betting.
Behind him, several contenders shortened following strong starts to the season. Christian Petracca is now into $13, Errol Gulden has firmed to $15, while Finn Callaghan has moved into $26 after attracting early market support.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera remains among the leading chances at $13, although his price has drifted slightly relative to the market leaders.
Early Predictions
Nick Daicos is favourite again and it makes sense
Daicos finishing runner-up for the second straight year tells you everything you need to know. He’s not knocking on the door anymore, he’s already inside the room.
Polling 32 votes in 2025 and reaching 100 career votes faster than anyone in history puts him squarely in “eventually unavoidable” territory. If Collingwood stay competitive and he stays on the park, he’s going to poll. A lot.
The only knock is the obvious one: umpires know him now. Expectations are baked in. That doesn’t kill Brownlow chances, but it does mean he needs to be clearly best-on more often than not.
The usual Brownlow suspects are circling
Marcus Bontempelli is still doing Marcus Bontempelli things. If the Bulldogs are winning, he’s polling. Simple as that. He doesn’t need a career year, just a clean run.
Bailey Smith landing at Geelong and immediately polling 29 votes in 22 games is the kind of thing Brownlow markets overreact to, but not without reason. The Cats win, the ball lives in midfield, and Smith plays a style umpires love. If he stays fit, he’ll be there late.
Matt Rowell is the defending medallist, but history isn’t kind to back-to-back Brownlow winners. Add in Noah Anderson continuing to siphon votes at the Suns and it gets tricky quickly.
The younger names who could blow this up
Will Ashcroft is the name that keeps popping up in early punter conversations. Brisbane win games, his role keeps growing, and he has that “noticed” factor that matters in this count.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera is another who feels like he’s hovering right on the edge of a breakout polling season. If St Kilda take even a small step forward, he won’t be sneaking under the radar anymore.
These are the types of players who turn a tidy market into a mess by Round 18.
This feels like a Brownlow to wait on
Early Brownlow markets always tempt people into planting a flag, but 2026 feels especially volatile.
There’s no runaway narrative yet. No “this is his year” storyline locking in votes before the season starts. Just a lot of elite midfielders, overlapping teammates, and clubs likely to take points off each other all year.
If you’re having a punt now, you’re betting on role stability and team success more than raw talent. And that’s always dangerous in February.
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