2026 Brownlow Medal Odds: Early Reads, Live Chances & Where the Value Might Be
- 2026 Brownlow Medal tipped to be highly competitive.
- Marcus Bontempelli has taken a lead in 2026 Brownlow Medal odds after strong performances.
- Nick Daicos has regressed in the rankings after a couple team losses.
- Younger players like Bailey Smith & Zak Butters could disrupt the race.
Matt Rowell of the Suns poses with the 2025 Brownlow Medal during a media opportunity at Crown Promenade on September 23, 2025 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Morgan Hancock/Getty Images)
The Brownlow never stays predictable for long.
A third of the way through the season and the market has already shifted multiple times. Injuries, role changes and team form have started separating genuine contenders from early hype.
What looked open in March is starting to take shape. There’s a clear top tier forming, but the gap isn’t locked in. One big month, or one missed game, can still flip the race quickly.
This is where timing becomes critical. The early prices are gone, but the market still hasn’t fully settled. There’s value in identifying who can sustain polling, not just spike for a few rounds.
The angle doesn’t change though, the elite midfielders in winning teams, with clean roles and minimal vote competition are streaking ahead. The difference now is we’ve got real data to back it up.
| 2026 Brownlow Medal Winner | Odds |
|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | $4.00 |
| Nick Daicos | $4.75 |
| Bailey Smith | $8.00 |
| Christian Petracca | $10.00 |
| Zak Butters | $10.00 |
| Isaac Heeney | $13.00 |
| Lachie Neale | $17.00 |
| Jai Newcombe | $21.00 |
| Luke Jackson | $26.00 |
| Rest of the field | +$34.00 |
Odds from Ladbrokes Australia and correct as of 2026-05-11
Weekly Update - Round 9
Marcus Bontempelli $4.00 has reclaimed outright favouritism in the Brownlow Medal market, moving ahead of Nick Daicos $4.75 after another dominant display. Bailey Smith $8.00 continues his rapid rise and now sits clear in third spot following a blistering month of football.
Luke Jackson $26 is the new addition to the main contenders list after a string of influential performances for Fremantle. The Dockers ruckman has been outstanding, although Fremantle’s even contribution across the midfield may limit his ability to consistently poll maximum votes.
Round 8
The Brownlow market is starting to wobble.
Nick Daicos has drifted to $3.40 despite a strong showing in Collingwood’s draw with Hawthorn, while Marcus Bontempelli has firmed into $4.50 even in a loss to Fremantle which is a sign the voting expectations aren’t always lining up with results.
Christian Petracca is into $10.50 and building a strong case off limited games, positioning as the main threat to the top two. Bailey Smith remains right in the mix, with consistency keeping him firmly in the conversation.
Round 7
Nick Daicos $2.60 has consolidated his spot at the top with Smith and Bontempelli $5.50 chasing hard.
Christian Petracca $10.50 and Zak Butters $11.50 are the only other likely contenders to be picking up points from their teams while the rest of the market is a jumble.
Christian Petracca $10.50 and Zak Butters $11.50 are the only other likely contenders to be picking up points from their teams while the rest of the market is a jumble.
Round 6
The Brownlow market shifted quickly this week.
Nick Daicos holds top spot at $3, while Marcus Bontempelli has eased to $6, now level with Bailey Smith after recent performances tightened that line.
Christian Petracca ($13) has held steady despite missing games, while Zak Butters ($15) avoided suspension and remains firmly in the mix.
Further back, Isaac Heeney ($13) and Harry Sheezel ($41) have both firmed on the back of strong team performances.
Round 5
What looked like a two-horse race early hasn’t lasted.
Daicos has reclaimed outright favouritism, Bontempelli has drifted slightly, and the chasing pack has closed the gap.
The race has opened up again and the market is starting to reflect it.
Round 4
Bontempelli has moved back into outright favouritism at $2.50 after another Bulldogs win over Easter.
Behind him, the chase pack has tightened. Zak Butters, Caleb Serong and Bailey Smith have all firmed into $17 following consistent midfield output.
Round 3
This has tightened into a two-horse race.
Marcus Bontempelli and Nick Daicos are locked at $3.00, with the market clearly separating them from the rest. That creates a watch-and-react setup as any dip from either opens the door quickly.
Zak Butters ($21) is the closest chaser, continuing to poll strongly despite Port’s inconsistency. Caleb Serong ($26) and Bailey Smith ($26) have also built steady cases through consistent midfield output.
Round 2
Marcus Bontempelli has shot up the odds rankings after another emphatic win in Round 2. The Bont has had 2 games of 30+ disposals and his team have taken down last year's premiers and minor premiers.
Nick Daicos should not be discounted given his role at Collingwood but there is murmurs in the media of his allergy to the contested footy.
Christian Petracca will miss time with injury but is still top 6 in odds interestingly enough.
Nick Daicos should not be discounted given his role at Collingwood but there is murmurs in the media of his allergy to the contested footy.
Christian Petracca will miss time with injury but is still top 6 in odds interestingly enough.
Round 1
The odds rankings have had a shake up with Errol Gulden going down with an injury that will see him miss the next few rounds. Marcus Bontempelli $5 is putting pressure on the favourite Nick Daicos $4.
Christian Petracca $6 and Noah Andersson $17 from the Suns are going to be popular bets all season long to bring the second straight Brownlow medal to the Gold Coast.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera $21 has fallen down the rankings after a quiet performance in Round 1.
Opening Round
Nick Daicos strengthened his position as Brownlow favourite after collecting 41 disposals in Collingwood’s Opening Round win over St Kilda. The dominant performance pushed him further ahead in early betting.
Behind him, several contenders shortened following strong starts to the season. Christian Petracca is now into $13, Errol Gulden has firmed to $15, while Finn Callaghan has moved into $26 after attracting early market support.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera remains among the leading chances at $13, although his price has drifted slightly relative to the market leaders.
Early Predictions
Nick Daicos is favourite again and it makes sense
Daicos finishing runner-up for the second straight year tells you everything you need to know. He’s not knocking on the door anymore, he’s already inside the room.
Polling 32 votes in 2025 and reaching 100 career votes faster than anyone in history puts him squarely in “eventually unavoidable” territory. If Collingwood stay competitive and he stays on the park, he’s going to poll. A lot.
The only knock is the obvious one: umpires know him now. Expectations are baked in. That doesn’t kill Brownlow chances, but it does mean he needs to be clearly best-on more often than not.
The usual Brownlow suspects are circling
Marcus Bontempelli is still doing Marcus Bontempelli things. If the Bulldogs are winning, he’s polling. Simple as that. He doesn’t need a career year, just a clean run.
Bailey Smith landing at Geelong and immediately polling 29 votes in 22 games is the kind of thing Brownlow markets overreact to, but not without reason. The Cats win, the ball lives in midfield, and Smith plays a style umpires love. If he stays fit, he’ll be there late.
Matt Rowell is the defending medallist, but history isn’t kind to back-to-back Brownlow winners. Add in Noah Anderson continuing to siphon votes at the Suns and it gets tricky quickly.
The younger names who could blow this up
Will Ashcroft is the name that keeps popping up in early punter conversations. Brisbane win games, his role keeps growing, and he has that “noticed” factor that matters in this count.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera is another who feels like he’s hovering right on the edge of a breakout polling season. If St Kilda take even a small step forward, he won’t be sneaking under the radar anymore.
These are the types of players who turn a tidy market into a mess by Round 18.
This feels like a Brownlow to wait on
Early Brownlow markets always tempt people into planting a flag, but 2026 feels especially volatile.
There’s no runaway narrative yet. No “this is his year” storyline locking in votes before the season starts. Just a lot of elite midfielders, overlapping teammates, and clubs likely to take points off each other all year.
If you’re having a punt now, you’re betting on role stability and team success more than raw talent. And that’s always dangerous in February.
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