2026 AFL Premiership Winner Odds - The Flag Race is On
- Fremantle Dockers are clear 2026 AFL premiership favourites at $3.50 after 14 straight wins.
- Weekly odds movement reflects current form, punishes losses, and reveals early value bets.
- Swans, Hawks, and Geelong remain strong challengers; Bulldogs and Lions present volatility.
Brisbane Lions players celebrate after winning the 2025 AFL Grand Final. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)
2026 AFL Premiership Odds - Expert Insights
The Bye Rounds are in the rearview mirror and the teams have started to turn for home with eyes on a flag.
This is your weekly AFL Premiership odds tracker where we break down the movers, the drifters, and the teams the bookies are starting to trust (or abandon).
Each round, we update how the flag race is shaping based on real results, not preseason hype. Who’s firming, who’s sliding, and where the value might be sitting before the market catches up.
Whether you’re riding the favourites or hunting early prices, this page follows the premiership race week by week.
See the full 2026 AFL Season Fixture.
🟢 Favourites tightening or drifting
🟠 Losses getting punished fast
🔵 Value emerging before the market reacts
Odds movement, ladder context, and what it actually means, updated every round.
Updated Odds Market
| AFL 2026 Grand Final Winner | Odds |
|---|---|
| Fremantle Dockers | $3.50 |
| Brisbane Lions | $5.00 |
| Sydney Swans | $6.50 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | $6.50 |
| Geelong Cats | $8.00 |
| Adelaide Crows | $12.50 |
| Western Bulldogs | $31.00 |
| Gold Coast Suns | $34.00 |
| Melbourne Demons | $46.00 |
| Carlton Blues | $46.00 |
| Collingwood Magpies | $61.00 |
| GWS Giants | $91.00 |
| St Kilda Saints | $136.00 |
| North Melbourne Kangaroos | $226.00 |
| Port Adelaide Power | $901.00 |
| West Coast Eagles | $901.00 |
| Essendon Bombers | $901.00 |
| Richmond Tigers | $901.00 |
Odds from Ladbrokes Australia 29-06-2026
Weekly Update - Round 16
Round 16 delivered another shake-up in the premiership market.
Brisbane firmed into $5.00 after a convincing 43-point win over Sydney, while the Swans drifted to $6.50 following the loss.
GWS have blown out to $91 after another disappointing loss, while St Kilda are now $136 despite having the bye, with bookmakers continuing to lose confidence in their premiership credentials.
The Western Bulldogs have shortened to $31 coming off the bye, reflecting renewed belief in their upside. Adelaide eased only slightly to $12.50 after going down to Port Adelaide, while the Power remain rank outsiders at $901, effectively out of the premiership race.
Round 15
The Fremantle Dockers $3.50 extended their win streak to 13 last weekend with a decisive victory over Geelong $8. They are 4pts ahead of the Sydney Swans $5 in second, and 14pts ahead of Hawthorn $7 who are third.
The Western Bulldogs $31 have made another jump up the rankings as have Carlton $71 but there is a clear difference between the top half and bottom half of the league.
Round 14
Sydney escaped with the four points against Port Adelaide, but the narrow win did little to impress bookmakers. The Swans remain at $5.00, while Hawthorn, Geelong and Brisbane now sit level at $7.50 behind market leader Fremantle.
Adelaide have firmed into $12 after another impressive victory, while St Kilda have shortened dramatically to $76 as their recent form continues to attract market support.
Fremantle remain clear favourites at $3.50. The Dockers had the bye in Round 14, leaving their premiership price untouched after a dominant first half of the season.
Round 13
Fremantle are now into $3.50 after extending their winning streak to 12 games, further cementing their position at the top of the premiership market.
Brisbane shortened to $8.50 after an important win over Gold Coast, while the Suns drifted to $14 following another setback against a fellow contender.
The Western Bulldogs have firmed significantly into $21, with bookmakers once again trying to work out where Luke Beveridge's side truly sits in the premiership race.
Collingwood continue to drift and are now out to $91, but with a Wild Card spot still within reach, the Pies aren't completely out of the picture just yet.
Round 12
Fremantle have interestingly gone up slightly to $4.00 after extending their winning streak to 11 games with an impressive victory over Brisbane. The Lions have drifted to $9.50, one of the biggest market movers of the week.
Geelong slipped to $6.50 following their loss to Carlton, while the Blues have firmed into $91 after stringing together three consecutive wins and giving punters a reason to pay attention again.
The market appears to have lost faith in the Western Bulldogs, who are now out to $41, while GWS continue to hover at $23 after back-to-back victories kept their finals hopes on track.
Round 11
Fremantle $3.90 have moved into outright favouritism following Sydney’s loss over the weekend, with the Dockers continuing to build one of the strongest defensive profiles in the competition.
Geelong $4.20 have also tightened significantly in recent weeks after dismantling Brisbane, a result that completely reshaped the top end of the premiership market.
Brisbane $5.00, Hawthorn $6.00 and Gold Coast $11 have all drifted slightly after inconsistent patches, although all three remain firmly in the premiership conversation.
Further down the board, Melbourne $26 and the Western Bulldogs $29 are emerging as interesting value plays under the expanded 2026 finals system, particularly if either side can string together momentum through the middle part of the season.
Round 10
The premiership race continues to tighten as Fremantle and Sydney keep banking wins, while Geelong’s dominant victory over Brisbane has thrown the top order of the market into complete disarray.
The Cats now look like genuine flag favourites again after their midfield and forward pressure overwhelmed the Lions from the opening bounce.
Further down the rankings, GWS have continued to slide after another disappointing loss, while Melbourne and Carlton at least restored some confidence with much-needed performances last weekend.
With multiple contenders trading wins and losses each week, the market remains volatile heading deeper into the season.
Round 9
There has been little movement at the top of the premiership market, although Fremantle $4.80 has tightened and Hawthorn $5.50 drifted following the Dockers’ thrilling Round 9 win over the Hawks in Perth.
Further down the board, the Western Bulldogs $26 have steadied after a heavy recent market fall, while Port Adelaide $111 have blown out into triple figures as concerns continue to grow around their consistency and depth.
Round 8
A gap is starting to open at the top.
Brisbane have firmed into $3.25, creating separation from Sydney ($4.00) despite both sides winning in Round 8. Adelaide drifted to $20 even after winning the Showdown, with the market still cautious on their profile.
The Bulldogs are out to $31 after another close loss, though injuries continue to impact their structure. Collingwood have moved the other way, firming into $20 and re-entering the conversation.
Round 7
Tiers are starting to form in the odds rankings. The Lions $3.80 and the Swans $3.80 are atop while the Hawks $4.80, Dockers $5.50 and Suns $8.50 are the credible competition.
The Western Bulldogs $16 have fallen following a couple of losses and an injury bug while Port Adelaide $76 came in by almost two thirds following their win over Geelong $10 last weekend.
The Western Bulldogs $16 have fallen following a couple of losses and an injury bug while Port Adelaide $76 came in by almost two thirds following their win over Geelong $10 last weekend.
Round 6
The Bulldogs have dropped out sharply, drifting to $14 after back-to-back losses.
Brisbane have moved back into favouritism at $3.50, while Fremantle and Hawthorn ($5.50) continue to firm as genuine contenders. Sydney ($4.80) remain one of the form teams and sit right in the mix.
Round 5
Gold Coast have slipped down the market after consecutive losses, while injuries have hit the Bulldogs, pushing their price out further.
At the top, Sydney and Brisbane continue to hold favouritism, with Fremantle and Hawthorn closing the gap.
Round 4
Gold Coast ($6.50) copped a tough loss to Melbourne, and the market reacted quickly, arguably too quickly.
Brisbane have moved back into $3.80 favouritism, with Sydney ($5.00) and the Bulldogs ($5.50) right behind in a tightening top tier.
Further down, Collingwood have drifted to $31, while GWS ($51) and Port Adelaide ($76) continue to slide. Carlton are now out to $116, officially into longshot territory.
Round 3
Round 3 exposed a few of the teams sitting in that messy play-in range.
Carlton ($61) coughed up a big lead to Melbourne ($61), but the market barely reacted. Same story for Port Adelaide ($51), who lost to West Coast ($151), the result noted but pricing unchanged.
Geelong firmed into $11.50 after another solid performance, while St Kilda drifted out to $41 as bookmakers continue to wrestle with one of the more unpredictable profiles in the comp this season.
Round 2
Round 2 definately threw up some surprises and there are key movers in the odds rankings. The Western Bulldogs have shortened dramatically after one of the best starts to a season for a number of years.
The Fremantle Dockers have been volatile over the first few weeks of the year but look to have steadied in single digit territory.
The Suns are still shining up north while the Orange Tsunami - GWS are struggling with injuries.
The Fremantle Dockers have been volatile over the first few weeks of the year but look to have steadied in single digit territory.
The Suns are still shining up north while the Orange Tsunami - GWS are struggling with injuries.
Round 1
Round 1 is done and dusted and it's the Bulldogs $8 who have moved the most up the odds rankings.
Brisbane $5.50 have been slow out of the gates while St Kilda $56 have not shown enough to keep them in the top 10.
Opening Round
Opening Round produced a few early market shifts. St Kilda underwhelmed compared to preseason expectations and have drifted down the premiership odds after their loss.
Gold Coast moved the other way. An impressive start to the season has seen the Suns surge into $5.00 favouritism to win the flag.
Sydney and the Western Bulldogs both strengthened their positions with convincing wins, while the defending premiers remain second favourites despite suffering an Opening Round defeat.
Pre-season Expert Preview
The Brisbane Lions are tipped to go back-to-back-to-back in 2026, a three-peat they famously pulled off from 2001 to 2003. With Sam Draper and Oscar Allen joining an already stacked squad, it’s no surprise they’re leading the market as early premiership favourites.
Hot on their heels are the Sydney Swans, Hawthorn Hawks and the Gold Coast Suns, rounding out the top four in early odds. The Suns are coming off their first ever finals appearance and now boast two big-name additions in Christian Petracca and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan. The Swans have recruited well and are tipped for a surge despite not making finals in 2025. As for Hawthorn? They’re the wildcard of the comp with plenty of upside and plenty of mystery.
The Cats, 2025 Grand Final runners-up, still have plenty of firepower to chase another flag. St Kilda’s another team on the rise, with plenty of footy pundits backing them for a top six push - but as always, the Saints will need to prove it when the heat’s on.
One thing’s for sure, 2026 is shaping up to be one hell of a season. We'll be tracking the movement all year long right here on AussieBets, with weekly AFL premiership odds updates, talking points and value plays to keep your group chats humming.
2026 AFL Premiership Season FAQ's
Who is favourite to win the 2026 AFL Premiership?
The Fremantle Dockers are the current 2026 AFL Premiership favourites at $3.50 with a current 14 game win streak.
Where is the AFL Grand Final played?
The AFL Grand Final is played at the home of footy MCG (Melbourne Cricket Ground).
When is the 2026 AFL Grand Final?
The 2026 AFL Grand Final will be played on the final Saturday in September, which in 2026 is the 26th. The game normally starts at 2pm AEDT.
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