2026 AFL Premiership Winner Odds - The Flag Race is On
- Brisbane Lions favored to win 2026 AFL Premiership at $3.25.
- Top contenders: Gold Coast Suns, Swans & Dockers.
- Significant odds shifts: Bulldogs steady, Port Adelaide down and out.
Brisbane Lions players celebrate after winning the 2025 AFL Grand Final. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)
2026 AFL Premiership Odds - Expert Insights
The season is now a third of the way gone and the market is separating the wheat from the chaff.
This is your weekly AFL Premiership odds tracker where we break down the movers, the drifters, and the teams the bookies are starting to trust (or abandon).
Each round, we update how the flag race is shaping based on real results, not preseason hype. Who’s firming, who’s sliding, and where the value might be sitting before the market catches up.
Whether you’re riding the favourites or hunting early prices, this page follows the premiership race week by week.
See the full 2026 AFL Season Fixture.
🟢 Favourites tightening or drifting
🟠 Losses getting punished fast
🔵 Value emerging before the market reacts
Odds movement, ladder context, and what it actually means, updated every round.
Updated Odds Market
| AFL 2026 Grand Final Winner | Odds |
|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | $3.25 |
| Sydney Swans | $4.00 |
| Fremantle Dockers | $4.80 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | $5.50 |
| Gold Coast Suns | $8.50 |
| Geelong Cats | $10.00 |
| Adelaide Crows | $20.00 |
| Collingwood Magpies | $26.00 |
| Western Bulldogs | $26.00 |
| GWS Giants | $31.00 |
| Melbourne Demons | $41.00 |
| St Kilda Saints | $61.00 |
| Port Adelaide Power | $111.00 |
| North Melbourne Kangaroos | $191.00 |
| Carlton Blues | $376.00 |
| Essendon Bombers | $376.00 |
| West Coast Eagles | $551.00 |
| Richmond Tigers | $551.00 |
Odds from Ladbrokes Australia 11-05-2026
Weekly Update - Round 9
There has been little movement at the top of the premiership market, although Fremantle $4.80 has tightened and Hawthorn $5.50 drifted following the Dockers’ thrilling Round 9 win over the Hawks in Perth.
Further down the board, the Western Bulldogs $26 have steadied after a heavy recent market fall, while Port Adelaide $111 have blown out into triple figures as concerns continue to grow around their consistency and depth.
Round 8
A gap is starting to open at the top.
Brisbane have firmed into $3.25, creating separation from Sydney ($4.00) despite both sides winning in Round 8. Adelaide drifted to $20 even after winning the Showdown, with the market still cautious on their profile.
The Bulldogs are out to $31 after another close loss, though injuries continue to impact their structure. Collingwood have moved the other way, firming into $20 and re-entering the conversation.
Round 7
Tiers are starting to form in the odds rankings. The Lions $3.80 and the Swans $3.80 are atop while the Hawks $4.80, Dockers $5.50 and Suns $8.50 are the credible competition.
The Western Bulldogs $16 have fallen following a couple of losses and an injury bug while Port Adelaide $76 came in by almost two thirds following their win over Geelong $10 last weekend.
The Western Bulldogs $16 have fallen following a couple of losses and an injury bug while Port Adelaide $76 came in by almost two thirds following their win over Geelong $10 last weekend.
Round 6
The Bulldogs have dropped out sharply, drifting to $14 after back-to-back losses.
Brisbane have moved back into favouritism at $3.50, while Fremantle and Hawthorn ($5.50) continue to firm as genuine contenders. Sydney ($4.80) remain one of the form teams and sit right in the mix.
Round 5
Gold Coast have slipped down the market after consecutive losses, while injuries have hit the Bulldogs, pushing their price out further.
At the top, Sydney and Brisbane continue to hold favouritism, with Fremantle and Hawthorn closing the gap.
Round 4
Gold Coast ($6.50) copped a tough loss to Melbourne, and the market reacted quickly, arguably too quickly.
Brisbane have moved back into $3.80 favouritism, with Sydney ($5.00) and the Bulldogs ($5.50) right behind in a tightening top tier.
Further down, Collingwood have drifted to $31, while GWS ($51) and Port Adelaide ($76) continue to slide. Carlton are now out to $116, officially into longshot territory.
Round 3
Round 3 exposed a few of the teams sitting in that messy play-in range.
Carlton ($61) coughed up a big lead to Melbourne ($61), but the market barely reacted. Same story for Port Adelaide ($51), who lost to West Coast ($151), the result noted but pricing unchanged.
Geelong firmed into $11.50 after another solid performance, while St Kilda drifted out to $41 as bookmakers continue to wrestle with one of the more unpredictable profiles in the comp this season.
Round 2
Round 2 definately threw up some surprises and there are key movers in the odds rankings. The Western Bulldogs have shortened dramatically after one of the best starts to a season for a number of years.
The Fremantle Dockers have been volatile over the first few weeks of the year but look to have steadied in single digit territory.
The Suns are still shining up north while the Orange Tsunami - GWS are struggling with injuries.
The Fremantle Dockers have been volatile over the first few weeks of the year but look to have steadied in single digit territory.
The Suns are still shining up north while the Orange Tsunami - GWS are struggling with injuries.
Round 1
Round 1 is done and dusted and it's the Bulldogs $8 who have moved the most up the odds rankings.
Brisbane $5.50 have been slow out of the gates while St Kilda $56 have not shown enough to keep them in the top 10.
Opening Round
Opening Round produced a few early market shifts. St Kilda underwhelmed compared to preseason expectations and have drifted down the premiership odds after their loss.
Gold Coast moved the other way. An impressive start to the season has seen the Suns surge into $5.00 favouritism to win the flag.
Sydney and the Western Bulldogs both strengthened their positions with convincing wins, while the defending premiers remain second favourites despite suffering an Opening Round defeat.
Pre-season Expert Preview
The Brisbane Lions are tipped to go back-to-back-to-back in 2026, a three-peat they famously pulled off from 2001 to 2003. With Sam Draper and Oscar Allen joining an already stacked squad, it’s no surprise they’re leading the market as early premiership favourites.
Hot on their heels are the Sydney Swans, Hawthorn Hawks and the Gold Coast Suns, rounding out the top four in early odds. The Suns are coming off their first ever finals appearance and now boast two big-name additions in Christian Petracca and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan. The Swans have recruited well and are tipped for a surge despite not making finals in 2025. As for Hawthorn? They’re the wildcard of the comp with plenty of upside and plenty of mystery.
The Cats, 2025 Grand Final runners-up, still have plenty of firepower to chase another flag. St Kilda’s another team on the rise, with plenty of footy pundits backing them for a top six push - but as always, the Saints will need to prove it when the heat’s on.
One thing’s for sure, 2026 is shaping up to be one hell of a season. We'll be tracking the movement all year long right here on AussieBets, with weekly AFL premiership odds updates, talking points and value plays to keep your group chats humming.
2026 AFL Premiership Season FAQ's
Who is favourite to win the 2026 AFL Premiership?
The Lions are the current 2026 AFL Premiership favourites at $3.25 following a cracking start to the season.
Which team has moved most in AFL odds this season?
Currently the biggest movers from 2025 to 2026 are Port Adelaide dropping to $67 and Sydney Swans going up to $9.
When is the 2026 AFL Grand Final?
The 2026 AFL Grand Final will be played on the final Saturday in September, which in 2026 is the 26th. The game normally starts at 2pm AEDT.
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