AFL Opening Round Tips & Preview - Best bets for Opening Round of the 2026 AFL season

Sydney launch their 2026 campaign at the SCG and look well placed to extend their strong home record against Carlton. Dean Cox’s side finished last season with momentum and have looked sharp in the pre-season, with Brodie Grundy controlling stoppage, Errol Gulden and Chad Warner driving transition and Charlie Curnow adding a potent focal point inside 50. Carlton’s midfield of Sam Walsh, Patrick Cripps and George Hewett ensures they’ll be competitive at the contest, but defensive concerns — particularly if Jacob Weitering is underdone — could be exposed by Sydney’s forward pressure and repeat entries. Expect the Swans to control territory for long periods and generate more scoring shots, with Sydney to win in the 1–39 range.

Gold Coast return home aiming to make an early statement and can edge Geelong in what shapes as a high-quality contest. The Suns showed their scoring power in the pre-season, with Jarrod Witts competitive in the ruck and Ben King a reliable aerial target, while Noah Anderson and Touk Miller provide enough midfield strength to offset the absence of Matt Rowell. Geelong remain disciplined and system-driven, but forward-line injury concerns around Jeremy Cameron and Shannon Neale create structural questions heading into a humid Queensland trip. If the Suns can control stoppage and turn this into a territory battle, their speed and familiarity with conditions should prove decisive. Gold Coast to win narrowly, 1–39.

Hawthorn look capable of grinding out another tight victory over GWS in what has become one of the competition’s most even matchups. The Hawks won both meetings last season, including the elimination final, and their pressure-based game style again looms as the difference. GWS enter Opening Round undermanned, missing Tom Green for the year along with key contributors such as Sam Taylor and Toby Bedford, placing heavy responsibility on Clayton Oliver, Stephen Coniglio and Toby Greene. Hawthorn’s forward mix, led by Jack Gunston and Nick Watson at ground level, appears more settled, and if they lock the ball in their front half and create repeat entries, they can again frustrate the Giants. Expect another close contest, with Hawthorn to win in the 1–39 range.

Brisbane’s depth and home-ground advantage should see them overpower the Western Bulldogs in a midfield-heavy battle. The reigning premiers have shown no signs of complacency, with Lachie Neale dictating stoppage, Charlie Cameron applying pressure at ground level and Logan Morris providing forward impact. The Bulldogs remain dangerous when Tim English gives first use to Marcus Bontempelli and Ed Richards, but their record against top-tier sides — particularly away from Marvel Stadium — remains a concern. With Harris Andrews marshalling a well-structured defence and Brisbane capable of sustaining pressure across four quarters, the Lions’ balance and polish should tell late. Brisbane to win in the 1–39 range.

St Kilda look poised to justify their pre-season hype when they meet Collingwood in the final match of Opening Round, with strong form through match simulation and a commanding Community Series win over Essendon highlighting improved transition, cleaner ball use and a more dynamic forward mix. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera looms large given his recent 30+ disposal performances against the Magpies, while the Saints have won their past two against Collingwood at the MCG and appear to have greater cohesion heading into 2026 despite minor injury concerns to key players. Collingwood remain dangerous through Nick and Josh Daicos, Jordan De Goey and their experienced core, but were exposed at clearance against GWS and let a 31-point lead slip against North Melbourne in the pre-season, raising questions around defensive transition and consistency. With sharper recent form and momentum on their side, St Kilda can edge a high-quality contest and open their season with a win.