South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Adelaide 36ers Tips – NBL Semi Final Game 2

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: 13 Mar 2026

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Ryan Tucker 13 Mar 2026

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Phoenix lost Game 1 but closely contested despite poor shooting.
Expected shooting improvements and home advantage favor Phoenix in Game 2.
Bet on Phoenix -4 and Nathan Sobey exceeding scoring metrics.
Tip-off is at 5:30 PM AEDT at John Cain Arena

Nathan Sobey of the Phoenix. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)

Phoenix vs 36ers NBL Tips & Predictions

South East Melbourne are tipped to bounce back in Game 2 of this Semi Final and send the series to a deciding third game.

Phoenix vs 36ers NBL Tips & Predictions
Match Details: Phoenix vs 36ers
Best Betting Tips – Phoenix vs 36ers
South East Melbourne Phoenix -4
Nathan Sobey Over 21.5 Points
Nathan Sobey Over 32.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists
Key Matchup to Watch
South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Adelaide 36ers Frequently Asked Questions

The Phoenix fell 104-97 in Game 1 in Adelaide but the underlying numbers suggest the contest was much closer than the final margin indicates.

SEM shot just 27.9% from three-point range, well below their season average of 35.1%, with Nathan Sobey and Ian Clark combining for just 4-of-21 from beyond the arc. Even a modest improvement in shooting efficiency would likely have swung the result.

Adelaide’s win was built heavily on the shoulders of Bryce Cotton, who played virtually the entire game and took more than double the shot attempts of any other teammate. While Cotton is the league’s premier scorer, that level of efficiency and usage is difficult to replicate in consecutive games.

The expectation in Game 2 is that South East Melbourne’s perimeter shooting regresses upward while Cotton’s output naturally cools slightly, shifting the advantage back toward the Phoenix on their home floor.

Match Details: Phoenix vs 36ers

Competition: NBL26
Match: South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Adelaide 36ers
Date: Saturday
Start Time: 5:30 PM AEDT
Venue: John Cain Arena

Best Betting Tips – Phoenix vs 36ers

South East Melbourne Phoenix -4

The Phoenix rarely produce two poor shooting performances in a row. With home court advantage and expected regression in their perimeter shooting, SEM are well placed to level the series.

Nathan Sobey Over 21.5 Points

Sobey struggled with efficiency in Game 1 but continues to lead the Phoenix offence and has historically produced strong scoring performances against Adelaide.

Nathan Sobey Over 32.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists

Sobey’s all-around involvement in the Phoenix offence has increased during the postseason and he has cleared this line in three consecutive games.

Key Matchup to Watch

Phoenix Perimeter Shooting vs Adelaide Reliance on Cotton

South East Melbourne’s offence is built around balanced scoring and perimeter spacing, while Adelaide’s attack is heavily reliant on Bryce Cotton creating offence. If SEM’s outside shooting improves, Adelaide may struggle to match the Phoenix scoring depth.

South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Adelaide 36ers Frequently Asked Questions

What time does South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Adelaide 36ers start?

Tip-off between South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Adelaide 36ers is at 5:30 PM AEDT, Saturday, March 14

What channel is South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Adelaide 36ers on?

You can watch South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Adelaide 36ers on ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel.

Where can I livestream South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Adelaide 36ers?

If you are outside of Australia, the NBL allows you to stream live on YouTube via the official NBL channel

Verdict

South East Melbourne Phoenix v Adelaide 36ers

South East Melbourne played well enough to win Game 1 despite shooting far below their normal standards from three-point range. With positive shooting regression expected and home court advantage in Game 2, the Phoenix are well positioned to bounce back and force a deciding third game in this Semi Final series.

SE Melbourne -4

Line

@-113.64 - 3 Units

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N Sobey over 21.5

Player Points

@-114.94 - 3 Units

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N Sobey over 32.5

Points, Rebounds & Assists

@-125.00 - 3 Units

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