Illawarra Hawks vs NZ Breakers Tips | NBL26 R16

Tip-off is scheduled for 2:30pm AEDT, with the Hawks trending upward following the return of Sam Froling, while the Breakers arrive in Wollongong reeling from one of the most disastrous performances of their season. On current form, this matchup strongly favours the home side.

Competition: NBL26 – Round 16

Match: Illawarra Hawks vs New Zealand Breakers

Date: Sunday, 11 January 2026

Tip-off: 2:30 PM AEDT

Venue: WIN Entertainment Centre

Illawarra shape as a strong play at home against a New Zealand side in free fall. Since the return of Sam Froling, the Hawks have rediscovered the structure and physicality that defined their championship run in NBL25. 

They have scored 90 or more points in three straight games and now face a Breakers team coming off a humiliating 41-point loss to Sydney. Illawarra have also won four of their last five home games against New Zealand, making this a favourable matchup.

Sam Froling continues to build confidence and form after returning to the lineup. He has scored at least 15 points in each of his last three games and remains central to Illawarra’s offence at both ends of the floor. Against a Breakers frontcourt that struggled badly against Sydney, Froling should again enjoy a significant matchup advantage inside.

New Zealand’s perimeter defence has collapsed, ranking last in the NBL with an opposition three-point percentage near the bottom of the league. 

Q.J. Peterson has taken full advantage of similar matchups, knocking down 10 three-pointers across his last three games and clearing 3+ threes in four of his last five. With Illawarra’s ball movement improving, Peterson is set up for another strong perimeter outing.