Essendon 2026 Season Preview: AFL Outlook and Betting Analysis

 A severe injury crisis saw fifteen debutants and four ACL ruptures. By season’s end, continuity was gone and development was reactive rather than planned.

The off season confirmed a shift in direction. Sam Draper departed to Brisbane as a free agent. Todd Goldstein, Dylan Shiel and several depth players were delisted. Essendon used three first round picks on Sullivan Robey, Jacob Farrow and Dyson Sharp, adding genuine athletic upside. Brayden Fiorini arrived from Gold Coast for experience on the wing.

This is now clearly a rebuild.

Essendon’s season is about clarity.

In 2025 the Bombers ranked high for disposals and retention but low for metres gained, contested possession rate and turnover differential. They controlled volume without controlling territory. Too many chains stalled in safe areas and too many turnovers hurt them in dangerous zones.

Brad Scott’s challenge is to keep the possession base while adding intent. Faster decisions, earlier vertical ball use and better protection behind the ball are non negotiable if this system is to hold under pressure.

The defensive group has raw materials. Jordan Ridley, Zach Reid and Ben McKay form a capable tall trio if fit. Mason Redman and Andrew McGrath provide drive. Jacob Farrow’s kicking could add composure early.

The midfield has depth of options. Zach Merrett remains the standard setter, with Jye Caldwell and Sam Durham key pieces. Dyson Sharp and Sullivan Robey bring different profiles and should see senior exposure. Youth is not lacking.

Up forward, Nate Caddy and Isaac Kako represent the future. Peter Wright still draws the best defender and creates space for others. There is at least a framework to build around.

The list is the second youngest in the competition. Inexperience will show late in games. Young teams can default to safety when under scoreboard pressure, reinforcing the very habits they are trying to break.

The ruck division is thinner without Draper. Lachie Blakiston and Nick Bryan must hold up against more established opponents.

There is also the Zach Merrett variable. He stepped down as captain after attempting to move clubs. If his long term commitment wavers again, it complicates timing and asset management.

Merrett remains Essendon’s only genuine star. The rebuild accelerates if Caldwell, Durham and Sharp become consistent clearance and transition drivers.

The key is balance between continuity and discovery. If first year players are trusted with meaningful minutes, it signals commitment to the long term timeline rather than chasing marginal short term gains.

Essendon project as a bottom six side with developmental upside. They will be competitive in patches but lack the consistency to sustain winning runs.

From a betting perspective, they are more relevant in weekly markets where effort and matchup can keep games closer than expected. Futures investments carry significant volatility.

Their realistic range sits between fourteenth and eighteenth. Improvement will be measured by system resilience and young player development rather than ladder position.

The pain of 2025 clarified direction. Whether it produces meaningful gain will take longer than one season to answer.