AFL Round 21 Tips & Preview - Best bets for the Round 21 of the AFL home and away season
- Western Bulldogs to leverage historical dominance over GWS Giants.
- Adelaide faces a crucial test against Hawthorn for top-four placement.
- Collingwood aims to extend unbeaten streak against Brisbane Lions.
LAUNCESTON, AUSTRALIA - JUNE 13: Riley Thilthorpe of the Crows marks the ball during the round 14 AFL match between Hawthorn Hawks and Adelaide Crows at University of Tasmania Stadium, on June 13, 2025, in Launceston, Australia. (Photo by Steve Bell/Getty Images)
Round 21 of the 2125 AFL season takes place from July 31. Adam Cusworth provides his best bets for the seven games taking place.
- Western Bulldogs v GWS Giants, Marvel Stadium (7.30pm)
- Adelaide Crows v Hawthorn, Adelaide Oval (7.40pm)
- Melbourne v West Coast Eagles, Marvel Stadium (1.20pm)
- Gold Coast Suns v Richmond, People First Stadium (4.10pm)
- Sydney Swans v Essendon, SCG (4.15pm)
- Collingwood v Brisbane Lions, MCG (7.35pm)
- St Kilda v North Melbourne, Marvel Stadium (1.40pm)
- Geelong Cats v Port Adelaide, GMHBA Stadium (3.20pm)
- Fremantle v Carlton, Optus Stadium (5.10pm)
Thursday July 31
Western Bulldogs v GWS Giants, Marvel Stadium (7.30pm)
The Western Bulldogs and GWS Giants open Round 21 in a crucial clash that could shape the top eight. The Bulldogs are just outside the eight but come in with momentum after smashing Essendon by 93 points, while the Giants sit just ahead in 6th and pulled off a stunning comeback over Sydney. The Bulldogs have dominated this matchup historically, winning eight of the last nine, including a 32-point win earlier this season. Despite GWS’s strong form and undefeated Victorian record in 2025, the home side’s scoring power and midfield depth — led by Tom Liberatore and Marcus Bontempelli — should prove decisive. Expect the Dogs to get the job done, with Jake Stringer posing a threat for GWS up forward and Lachie Whitfield continuing his run as a high-possession playmaker.
Friday August 1
Adelaide Crows v Hawthorn, Adelaide Oval (7.40pm)
Adelaide and Hawthorn clash in a high-stakes Friday night blockbuster that could shape the top four. The Crows are flying in 2nd after a 98-point demolition of Port Adelaide, boasting seven straight wins at home, while the Hawks sit 5th and must win to keep their double-chance hopes alive. Despite Adelaide’s dominant recent form, Hawthorn have had the wood over them — winning the past three meetings and five of the last six at Adelaide Oval. Expect a tight contest with the Hawks covering the line, Jake Soligo continuing his disposal dominance, and the total points staying under in what looms as a fiercely contested, finals-like encounter.
Saturday August 2
Melbourne v West Coast Eagles, Marvel Stadium (1.20pm)
Melbourne will be keen to atone for their horrid collapse against St Kilda last weekend when they face wooden spooners West Coast at Marvel Stadium. Despite sitting 13th, the Demons have shown glimpses of strong form, especially around stoppages, thanks to Max Gawn’s dominance in the ruck. However, their wayward goalkicking and inability to convert inside 50s into scores have cost them dearly. West Coast, anchored to the bottom of the ladder, are battling through a nine-game losing streak and continue to struggle for scoring options in the absence of key forwards. While Melbourne should win comfortably, their recent inefficiency suggests it might not be a blowout.
Gold Coast Suns v Richmond, People First Stadium (4.10pm)
Gold Coast are well-placed to continue their strong home form when they face Richmond at People First Stadium in Round 21. The Suns sit inside the top eight with a 12-6 record and are coming off a dominant 66-point win over Brisbane, while Richmond remain 16th and have struggled against top-eight opposition. Gold Coast have won five of their past six at home and boast a dominant midfield led by Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell, while Ben King continues to provide a consistent scoring threat. Expect the Suns to control the contest and take another step toward securing their first-ever finals appearance.
Sydney Swans v Essendon, SCG (4.15pm)
Sydney return to the SCG looking to bounce back from a second-half collapse against GWS, and they’ll get their chance against a heavily depleted Essendon outfit in freefall. The Bombers have lost eight straight — five of those by 40+ points — and have averaged just 48 points a game over their past three, struggling to score with a long injury list and limited forward options. While the Swans also have their own injury concerns, they’ve won their past two at the SCG and should have far too much polish and depth. Expect Sydney to cover the line, with Isaac Heeney likely to hit the scoreboard again and Errol Gulden to find plenty of the footy through the middle.
Collingwood v Brisbane Lions, MCG (7.35pm)
Collingwood are primed to extend their recent dominance over Brisbane when the two sides meet at the MCG in Round 21. The Magpies have won their past four clashes against the Lions, including this year’s 52-point thumping and the 2023 Grand Final, and come into this match sitting atop the ladder with the AFL’s most miserly defence. Brisbane were humbled by Gold Coast last week and will need a sharper forward-50 conversion rate to trouble Collingwood, who concede just 65 points per game. Expect a tight, low-scoring contest with midfield stars like Nick Daicos and Lachie Neale playing key roles.
Sunday August 3
St Kilda v North Melbourne, Marvel Stadium (1.40pm)
St Kilda will look to carry the momentum from their historic comeback win over Melbourne into Sunday's clash against North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium. The Saints overturned a 46-point three-quarter time deficit in Round 20, with Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera starring in a last-minute match-winner. Despite inconsistency at home this season, they’ve won five straight against the Kangaroos and face a North side that has lost its last five by an average of 60 points, conceding 125 per game in that span. With key contributors like Jack Sinclair and Wanganeen-Milera in form, and North still missing key players, St Kilda are well-placed to notch another win.
Geelong Cats v Port Adelaide, GMHBA Stadium (3.20pm)
The Cats are eyeing a ruthless home performance against a battered Port Adelaide outfit in Round 21 at GMHBA Stadium. Geelong are in white-hot form, fresh off a 101-point demolition of North Melbourne and have now piled on 100+ points in eight of their last 11 games. Jeremy Cameron is unstoppable, kicking 11 goals last week and 49 in his last 10, while Bailey Smith continues to dominate the midfield. Port, on the other hand, are limping to the finish line with four losses from their last six and just 12 goals across their past two games. Historically, the Cats have dominated this matchup — winning the last two by 84 and 74 points. With finals on the horizon and top-four in sight, expect Geelong to turn up the heat again and cover the big line comfortably.
Fremantle v Carlton, Optus Stadium (5.10pm)
Fremantle will be looking to strengthen their finals spot when they host Carlton at Optus Stadium on Sunday evening. Sitting 7th on the ladder, the Dockers have won nine of their last ten and come off a dominant 49-point derby win over West Coast. Carlton, sitting in 12th and out of contention, showed some resilience against Hawthorn but ultimately slumped to another loss – their fifth in six games. The Blues have a strong recent record against Freo, winning their last three meetings, but the Dockers' current form and home-ground advantage make them firm favourites. Expect a tighter contest than the ladder suggests, with Freo likely to grind out a 1–39 point win. Andrew Brayshaw looms as a key figure in the midfield, while Carlton’s Charlie Curnow remains a goal threat.
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