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Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs NRL Qualifying Final Tips - Storm to reach another prelim
- Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs expert predictions for Friday’s Qualifying Final NRL game
- Kick off is at 7:50 PM (AEST) at AAMI Park
- Storm predicted to win despite key absences (Hughes, Papenhuyzen).
- Bulldogs’ attack/defence has declined; squad hit by injuries.
- Expect a close (1-12 margin), low-scoring game; Xavier Coates backed to score.
Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs, Qualifying Final 2025 - Game Preview
The Storm are missing Jahrome Hughes and Ryan Papenhuyzen, but it shouldn't matter too much they’ll still get the job done at home and punch their ticket to yet another prelim. That’d make it three in a row, and 10 in the last 11 seasons. Ridiculous.
- Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs, Qualifying Final 2025 - Game Preview
- Head to Head
- Melbourne Storm Form Analysis
- Melbourne Storm Team News
- Melbourne Storm Team List
- Canterbury Bulldogs Form Analysis
- Canterbury Bulldogs Team News
- Canterbury Bulldogs Team List
- Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs NRL 2025 Qualifying Final FAQ’s
Now earlier in the year, you’d be forgiven for thinking Melbourne were toast without Hughes. They’ve been pretty average without him the past few years, and even dropped that Round 4 game to the Dragons when he was out.
But here’s the thing, they’ve gone 4-1 without him at the back end of the season, with wins over Parra, Brisbane, Penrith and yep, these same Dogs. That’s more than enough to give ‘em confidence heading into this one.
As for the Bulldogs, they just haven’t clicked. Galvin might be the long-term answer in the halves, but right now the attack’s stalled out big time. And their defence, which carried them earlier in the year, is starting to crack a bit too.
They’re also set to roll out two new wingers, which isn’t ideal against a team like Melbourne who love to test the edges. Add in the fact they’ve been dreadful in the wet and yep, rain’s on the radar for Friday night, this could get messy if they don’t come ready.
Take Melbourne 1-12 in what is expected to be a tight and low scoring contest. Xavier Coates will be an aerial target against backup wingers, lock him in for a try.
- The last 2 matchups between these teams have finished with 1-12 margins and the last 3 have gone Under the Game Total.
- The Bulldogs have a 15-9 record to the Under this season and are the top ranked defence in the NRL while occupying the 14th spot over the last 5 games for scoring.
- Melbourne have made the Preliminary Final in 9 of the last 10 seasons.
- Canterbury have named 2 back up wingers and Xavier Coates has scored 9 tries in the last 8 games of the season.
Head to Head
Melbourne hold a dominant 7-1 record against the Bulldogs since the start of the 2019 season. They have won 2 straight at AAMI park including the most recent battle in August this year which finished 20-14.
The Under has hit in 3 straight games and in 5 of the last 8. While the winning margin has stayed between 1-12 in the last 2 games, in 5 of the last 8 the scores have erupted to 13+ margins.
Melbourne Storm Form Analysis
The Storm have dropped 2 in a row heading into week 1 of the finals, a skid that capped a 5 game win streak which also extended a 11 wins from 12 games run.
The 30-14 loss to the Broncos at Suncorp is more telling than the 40-10 loss to the Roosters the week prior due to the lineup changes Melbourne had made in resting players.
Melbourne had 55% of Possession and 60% of Territory in the loss to the Broncos, much higher numbers than their season averages. The 47 Tackles Inside Opposition 20m was also immense but with Jahrome Hughes going down with a wrist injury, their attack was left wanting.
Melbourne Storm Team News
Jahrome Hughes is not likely to play again in 2025 after fracturing his arm in his return from a shoulder injury last weekend. Tyran Wishart has been named as his replacement.
Ryan Papenhuyzen was concussed in the final moments of last week’s game and is now out, Nick Meaney is his replacement at fullback. Joe Chan comes into the centres as cover.
Harry Grant is back following suspension, Nelson Asofa-Solomona is out due to suspension.
Melbourne Storm Team List
1. Nick Meaney
2. Will Warbrick
3. Grant Anderson
4. Joe Chan
5. Xavier Coates
6. Cameron Munster
7. Tyran Wishart
8. Stefano Utoikamanu
9. Harry Grant
10. Josh King
11. Ativalu Lisati
12. Eli Katoa
13. Trent Loiero
Interchange
14. Jonah Pezet
15. Alec MacDonald
16. Tui Kamakimica
17. Bronson Garlick
Reserves
18. Kane Bradley
19. Marion Seve
20. Jack Howarth
21. Sua Faalogo
22. Lazarus Vaalepu
Canterbury Bulldogs Form Analysis
Canterbury were touched up by the Sharks last weekend 24-6, their 4th loss in their last 6 games. Despite that, they retain their spot in the top 4 thanks to an impressive 11-2 start.
The major difference between those first 13 games and the ones that have been played since - Lachlan Galvin. Since the playmaker joined the Bulldogs they have averaged a converted try less in points as well as reduced rankings in significant statistical measures that contribute to wins.
The defence is still ranked 1st overall in the NRL but has slid to 4th over the past 5 games. Over the same span, they rank 14th in Scoring.
Canterbury Bulldogs Team News
Bronson Xerri left the field with concussion last weekend and will miss this weekend’s game. Marcelo Montoya also suffered an ankle injury which forces him out too. Jethro Rinakama and Blake Wilson join the squad with Enari Tuala going into the centres.
Jacob Kiraz could be a late inclusion after being named in the reserves. Sam Hughes and Josh Curran switch between starting and interchange.
Canterbury Bulldogs Team List
1. Connor Tracey
2. Jethro Rinakama
3. Enari Tuala
4. Stephen Crichton
5. Blake Wilson
6. Matt Burton
7. Lachlan Galvin
8. Max King
9. Bailey Hayward
10. Samuel Hughes
11. Viliame Kikau
12. Jacob Preston
13. Jaeman Salmon
Interchange
14. Kurt Mann
15. Sitili Tupouniua
16. Josh Curran
17. Reed Mahoney
Reserves
19. Jake Turpin
20. Kurtis Morrin
21. Toby Sexton
22. Harry Hayes
23. Jacob Kiraz
Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs NRL 2025 Qualifying Final FAQ’s
How to watch Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs NRL 2025 Qualifying Final?
You can watch the Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs NRL 2025 Qualifying Final game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.
How to buy tickets to Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs NRL 2025 Qualifying Final?
To buy tickets to the Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs NRL 2025 Qualifying Final game check the NRL website or the official Melbourne Storm site.
Verdict
Take Melbourne 1-12 in what is expected to be a tight and low scoring contest. Xavier Coates will be an aerial target against backup wingers, lock him in for a try.
Melbourne Storm 1-12
Winning Margin
@200.00 - 2 Units
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Under 37.5
Game Total
@-111.11 - 2 Units
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@-133.33 - 2 Units
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