AFL Round 14 Tips & Preview - Best bets for the Round 14 of the AFL home and away season

ROUND 14

The Western Bulldogs will be looking to reignite their season when they face St Kilda Saints in the Round 14 opener at Marvel Stadium. Despite a disappointing 22-point loss to Hawthorn in Round 13, the Bulldogs remain a potent attacking force, ranked second for goals and disposals over the past five weeks. They’ll be buoyed by the expected return of key forward Sam Darcy and the strong form of Bailey Dale, who’s averaging over 30 disposals in recent weeks. The Saints, meanwhile, come off a bye and a confidence-boosting win over Melbourne, but their overall inconsistency — with six losses in their past eight — casts doubt over their ability to match the Dogs’ firepower. Having been thumped by 71 points when these sides met in Round 6, St Kilda will need a major turnaround to reverse the trend. Expect the Bulldogs to bounce back and cover the line, with Rhylee West and Bailey Dale likely to play key roles.

Hawthorn and Adelaide face off under Friday night lights in Launceston, with the Hawks tipped to edge out the Crows in what promises to be a close contest at UTAS Stadium. Both sides are coming off impressive Round 13 wins — Hawthorn broke a three-game losing streak with a spirited 22-point win over the Bulldogs, while Adelaide stunned the reigning premiers Brisbane with a dramatic five-point comeback. However, the Crows’ interstate form has been patchy, winning just two of five outside South Australia, while the Hawks have made UTAS a fortress, winning seven straight at the venue. Mabior Chol is in career-best form up forward for Hawthorn, supported by Jack Gunston, while Josh Ward and Jai Newcombe continue to find plenty of the ball. Adelaide will lean on their tall forwards and the red-hot Josh Rachele, but the Hawks’ familiarity with the ground and defensive matchups could be decisive. Take Hawthorn to win narrowly in what should be a tightly fought battle.

The Brisbane Lions host the GWS Giants at the Gabba in a high-stakes Round 14 clash that shapes as a potential danger game for the reigning premiers. Brisbane, coming off a frustrating five-point loss to Adelaide in which they kicked 0.8 in the final quarter, have struggled with consistency and efficiency in recent weeks, sitting 2-2-1 over their last five matches. GWS, while sitting 7th on the ladder, have been strong on the road this season with a 4-2 record outside Sydney and will be buoyed by memories of their upset win at the Gabba in Round 22 last year. The midfield battle between Will Ashcroft and Tom Green, both in top disposal form, looms large, while Charlie Cameron and Jesse Hogan are expected to be key targets up forward for the Giants. While the Lions are tipped to edge out GWS, the contest is likely to remain tight—making a margin under 39.5 points or a Giants cover with the start a strong play.

Geelong are primed to continue their dominance over Essendon when the two sides meet at the MCG on Saturday in Round 14. The Cats have surged into the top four on the back of four straight wins and boast the most potent attack in the AFL over the past five rounds. In contrast, Essendon’s scoring struggles persist, ranking 16th for points in the same period despite leading the competition in disposals. The Bombers have failed to defeat a team above them on the ladder this season and face a tough challenge against a side that has beaten them in their last seven encounters — by an average margin of 51 points. With Jeremy Cameron looking to bounce back after a quiet outing and Tyson Stengle in form up forward, Geelong’s firepower may simply overwhelm an injury-hit Essendon defence. Expect Max Holmes to win plenty of the ball, while Nic Martin will be among the few consistent performers for the Bombers. Take Geelong to win comfortably and cover the line.

North Melbourne and Fremantle meet at Optus Stadium on Saturday night in a Round 14 clash that could be closer than many expect. The Kangaroos have shown real signs of improvement in recent weeks, claiming two wins and a draw in their past four games, while significantly tightening up defensively — conceding just 74 points per game over the last five rounds. Their midfield has been a real strength, with Tristan Xerri dominating the ruck and Colby McKercher and Harry Sheezel consistently winning plenty of the ball. Fremantle, however, are in strong form themselves with three straight wins, and the dynamic duo of Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Serong will again be pivotal after starring against the Suns. While the Dockers are deserved favourites, North Melbourne defeated them the last time they met at Optus Stadium and can push them all the way. Take the Roos with the start in what shapes as a competitive contest, with Brayshaw and Paul Curtis likely to play key roles for their respective sides.

Melbourne will look to revive their faint finals hopes with a crucial win over Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval on Sunday afternoon. The Demons are 5-8 after a heartbreaking one-point loss to Collingwood, but their midfield — led by Max Gawn, Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver — was dominant in clearances and contested possessions. Port Adelaide sit just below them at 5-7 on the ladder and come off a morale-boosting win over GWS, though their scoring issues persist. Recent clashes between these two sides have been tight, but with Melbourne’s edge in midfield and Kozzie Pickett’s strong goalkicking form against the Power, the Demons are tipped to come out on top in what looms as a make-or-break clash for both sides.

Carlton will look to keep their finals hopes alive when they face the struggling West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium on Sunday evening. The Blues, sitting 11th with a 5-7 record, are coming off a hard-fought win over Essendon and have dominated the Eagles in recent years, winning the last five meetings by an average of 76 points — including a 71-point thrashing earlier this season. West Coast have managed just one win in 2025 and continue to rank last in key areas like disposals and clearances. With George Hewett in strong midfield form and Charlie Curnow boasting 21 goals from his past three games against the Eagles, Carlton are well placed to control the contest, although both teams' recent scoring struggles suggest a low total is likely.

Bye: Collingwood, Gold Coast Suns, Richmond, Sydney Swans