2026 Brownlow Medal Odds: Early Reads, Live Chances & Where the Value Might Be
- 2026 Brownlow Medal tipped to be highly competitive.
- Nick Daicos favorite for 2026 Brownlow at $5.00 odds.
- Key challengers: Marcus Bontempelli, Bailey Smith.
- Dynamic field means predictions could change as season progresses.
- Will Ashcroft is a potential breakout candidate for 2026.
Matt Rowell of the Suns poses with the 2025 Brownlow Medal during a media opportunity at Crown Promenade on September 23, 2025 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Morgan Hancock/Getty Images)
The Brownlow always looks neat on paper. Then the season starts and it turns into chaos.
With Matt Rowell holding the medal after 2025, the early market for the 2026 Brownlow feels open, jumpy, and very easy to get wrong if you lock in too early. There’s a clear favourite, a couple of obvious threats, and then a messy pack of midfielders who could easily steal it if the year breaks their way.
This is one of those Brownlow races where patience might matter just as much as prediction.
If we had to lean somewhere this early, it’s a single elite mid on a finals-bound team without a clear vote-stealer beside him. That narrows the field fast.
| 2026 Brownlow Medal Winner | Odds |
|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | $5.00 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | $9.00 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | $10.00 |
| Matt Rowell | $13.00 |
| Bailey Smith | $21.00 |
| Will Ashcroft | $21.00 |
| Jordan Dawson | $26.00 |
| Finn Callaghan | $26.00 |
| Caleb Serong | $29.00 |
| Rest of the field | +$34.00 |
Odds from Ladbrokes Australia and correct as of 2026-02-10
Early Predictions
Nick Daicos is favourite again and it makes sense
Daicos finishing runner-up for the second straight year tells you everything you need to know. He’s not knocking on the door anymore, he’s already inside the room.
Polling 32 votes in 2025 and reaching 100 career votes faster than anyone in history puts him squarely in “eventually unavoidable” territory. If Collingwood stay competitive and he stays on the park, he’s going to poll. A lot.
The only knock is the obvious one: umpires know him now. Expectations are baked in. That doesn’t kill Brownlow chances, but it does mean he needs to be clearly best-on more often than not.
The usual Brownlow suspects are circling
Marcus Bontempelli is still doing Marcus Bontempelli things. If the Dogs are winning, he’s polling. Simple as that. He doesn’t need a career year, just a clean run.
Bailey Smith landing at Geelong and immediately polling 29 votes in 22 games is the kind of thing Brownlow markets overreact to, but not without reason. The Cats win, the ball lives in midfield, and Smith plays a style umpires love. If he stays fit, he’ll be there late.
Matt Rowell is the defending medallist, but history isn’t kind to back-to-back Brownlow winners. Add in Noah Anderson continuing to siphon votes at the Suns and it gets tricky quickly.
The younger names who could blow this up
Will Ashcroft is the name that keeps popping up in early punter conversations. Brisbane win games, his role keeps growing, and he has that “noticed” factor that matters in this count.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera is another who feels like he’s hovering right on the edge of a breakout polling season. If St Kilda take even a small step forward, he won’t be sneaking under the radar anymore.
These are the types of players who turn a tidy market into a mess by Round 18.
This feels like a Brownlow to wait on
Early Brownlow markets always tempt people into planting a flag, but 2026 feels especially volatile.
There’s no runaway narrative yet. No “this is his year” storyline locking in votes before the season starts. Just a lot of elite midfielders, overlapping teammates, and clubs likely to take points off each other all year.
If you’re having a punt now, you’re betting on role stability and team success more than raw talent. And that’s always dangerous in February.
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