NBL26 Finals Race: The Run Home That Will Decide the Top Six

With four rounds left in the NBL26 regular season, the finals picture has narrowed quickly. Despite nine teams still being mathematically alive, the reality is simple. Only three teams are genuinely fighting over the final spot in the top six.

Tasmania, Illawarra and New Zealand are separated by two games, they still have to play each other, and the Play In format means sixth place is the difference between finals basketball and an early off season. Everything from here on revolves around those three teams and the games they cannot afford to lose.

From this point forward, every result involving Tasmania, Illawarra or New Zealand directly reshapes the post season.

At the top, the picture is mostly settled. Adelaide has already secured a finals spot, while South East Melbourne, Sydney, Melbourne and Perth would need a serious collapse to fall out of the six.

That leaves Tasmania holding sixth place, with Illawarra and New Zealand chasing. The key difference is that none of these teams are relying solely on other results. Each of them still has head to head games that will decide their own fate.

Those matchups are effectively worth double, not just on the ladder but in terms of momentum and confidence heading into March.

Tasmania remain in control of their season, but the margin for error has narrowed sharply.

Last round was a turning point. Two losses in a single weekend and a season ending knee injury to Bryce Hamilton has forced the JackJumpers to reset on the fly with five games remaining. What once felt comfortable now feels fragile.

Their upcoming trip to Cairns suddenly carries real weight. Not because it decides anything immediately, but because Tasmania cannot afford to drift into the games that will ultimately decide their season.

Those games are coming against New Zealand and Illawarra. Win them, and Tasmania will be playing finals. Drop one, and the pressure shifts instantly.

Not long ago, Illawarra looked close to done. That no longer feels true.

Two strong road wins have pulled the reigning champions back into the conversation, and while they still trail Tasmania by two games, the way they are playing matters more than the ladder right now. They look organised, confident and comfortable in close games.

The challenge is the schedule. Illawarra face one of the tougher run homes in the league, with games against Sydney, Perth and Adelaide sitting alongside the matchups that will define their season.

Friday night against the Kings is the next real test. Steal a win there, and the race tightens immediately. Fall short, and that final round trip to Tasmania starts to loom even larger.

New Zealand’s path is the narrowest of the three.

Losses to the competition’s top sides have done damage, and the season ending injury to Sam Mennenga has stripped away depth at the worst possible time. With six games left, the Breakers no longer have the luxury of moral victories.

They still have opportunities, particularly against Tasmania and Illawarra, but those games now carry a clear message. Lose either, and the finals equation becomes difficult. Lose both, and the season is likely decided before the Play In even begins.

Their matchup with Melbourne this round is another pressure point. Beyond the result, it will show whether this group still looks capable of handling finals intensity basketball.

The reason this race feels so tense is because sixth place now carries real value.

The Play In format has changed the incentives. Finishing sixth still means post season basketball, and from there, one win can be enough to reach the semi finals. Momentum, health and timing matter as much as ladder position.

For a full breakdown of how the Play In works and what sixth place actually means, the NBL26 Finals Format guide explains the structure in detail.