AFL Semi Finals Tips & Preview - Best bets for the Week 2 of the AFL Finals Series

Adam Cusworth provides his best bets for the four games taking place.

Hawthorn will need to defy history but head into Friday night’s Semi Final against top-seeded Adelaide with momentum and belief after a stirring 19-point win over GWS. The Hawks exploded early in that clash and showed grit late to fend off a Giants comeback, with Jack Gunston and Jack Ginnivan continuing their hot form and Jai Newcombe dominating the midfield. Under Sam Mitchell, Hawthorn’s high-pressure, controlled-tempo game style has proven effective, and their strong record at the Adelaide Oval against Adelaide— five wins from their last seven — adds weight to their upset hopes. With Adelaide missing suspended star Izak Rankine and looking shaky in their Qualifying Final loss to Collingwood, the door is ajar.

Despite finishing top of the ladder with 18 wins and a 12–2 home record, Adelaide looked vulnerable last week, struggling to move the ball cleanly under pressure. They won 12 of their last 13 home and away games but were exposed by Collingwood’s intensity and defensive structure. Riley Thilthorpe and Taylor Walker remain key threats up forward, while Luke Pedlar’s three-goal effort was a positive. However, the Crows will need more from leaders like Jordan Dawson and Rory Laird if they’re to regain control of their finals campaign. With Hawthorn surging and the Crows slightly off their best, this Semi Final will go down to the wire with the brown and gold looking the value in the head to head. 

Brisbane enter Saturday’s blockbuster Q-Clash semi-final bruised from a 38-point loss to Geelong in the Qualifying Final, where their midfield was overwhelmed and key injuries mounted. Already missing Eric Hipwood, the reigning premiers were dealt a hammer blow with Lachie Neale ruled out for the rest of the season with a calf injury. The Lions, who finished 3rd on the ladder with 16 wins and a draw, had moments of fight — including three goals from Cam Rayner — but ultimately conceded 60 inside 50s and lacked their usual composure. Gold Coast, meanwhile, arrive with momentum after a historic one-point elimination final win over Fremantle — their first ever in finals — with Matt Rowell, Noah Anderson and Jarrod Witts leading the way. The Suns, who finished 7th with 15 wins, were fearless and composed in a dramatic finish, capped by veteran David Swallow’s match-winning behind.

The Suns beat Brisbane by 66 points as recently as Round 20, and while the Lions won their earlier meeting this year at the Gabba — where they’ve beaten the Suns in the past seven clashes — this shapes as a very different contest. With Neale out and the Suns midfield in red-hot form, Gold Coast will back themselves to dominate the contest and force Brisbane to play from behind. Expect a ferocious midfield battle and a pressure-heavy, low-scoring affair that could go down to the wire. The under on total points is in play, and Gold Coast with the start appeals. Cam Rayner looms as Brisbane’s X-factor again, while Noah Anderson — who had 33 disposals the last time these sides met — is primed for another big outing.