AFL Round 16 Tips & Preview - Best bets for the Round 16 of the AFL home and away season

It’s do-or-die for both Port Adelaide and Carlton as they clash in a high-stakes Round 16 showdown at Adelaide Oval, with both sides locked at 6-8 and needing a win to keep slim finals hopes alive. Port come off a 19-point loss to Sydney, struggling again with scoreboard impact despite strong midfield numbers from Zak Butters and Connor Rozee. Carlton fared little better, going down to North Melbourne after trailing by 46 points at the final break, with disposal efficiency and forward conversion continuing to plague the Blues. Both teams are battling for consistency, and with Harry McKay and Sam Walsh still sidelined, the edge may lie with Port at home—but with both outfits hard to trust, the total points under could be the safer play.

The Western Bulldogs will look to strengthen their hold on a top-eight spot when they face the Sydney Swans at the SCG on Friday night. The Bulldogs sit 8th on the ladder and are fresh off a 79-point demolition of Richmond, continuing their high-scoring form behind in-form stars Sam Darcy and Matt Kennedy. Sydney, 11th with a 6-8 record, have welcomed back key players and claimed a solid win over Port Adelaide, but their inaccuracy in front of goal remains a concern. Despite the Swans' improvement, the Bulldogs’ elite midfield depth and superior scoring power — they lead the AFL for points in 2025 — make them the team to beat.

Gold Coast will be desperate to bounce back after slipping from the top eight, and they look primed to do just that against Melbourne in Saturday’s Round 16 clash at People First Stadium. Despite a late collapse against GWS, the Suns dominated most key stats and can regain momentum against a Demons outfit stuck in a three-game losing streak. Gold Coast smashed Melbourne by 58 points earlier this season, and with Noah Anderson, Matt Rowell, and Touk Miller in top form, expect them to win the midfield battle again. Ben King looms large up forward, while Melbourne’s accuracy woes remain a concern. Back the Suns to cover the line, with Anderson and King both key players to watch.

Hawthorn will look to solidify their finals credentials when they take on a resurgent North Melbourne at UTAS Stadium in Round 16. The Hawks sit fifth on the ladder at 9-5 and come off a tight win over Adelaide before the bye, while the Kangaroos are building momentum with three wins from their last five, including an 11-point upset over Carlton. North’s recent form has been built on pressure and clearance dominance, but Hawthorn hold a strong recent record in this matchup, winning the past six including a 124-point demolition last year. Expect a close, low-scoring contest, with the Hawks likely edging it in the 1–39 range and Jai Newcombe again influential.

Collingwood are expected to notch another dominant win when they host West Coast at Marvel Stadium in Round 16, with the 2023 premiers in red-hot form and sitting atop the ladder at 12-2. The Magpies cruised past St Kilda last week and boast the stingiest defence in the league, while the Eagles, languishing in last place with just one win, continue to struggle at both ends of the ground. Recent history favours the Pies, who smashed West Coast by 66 points at this venue last year, and stars like Nick Daicos and Jamie Elliott loom large again. With Collingwood’s firepower and West Coast’s vulnerability, the margin is the only question—expect a blowout.

Adelaide are primed to deliver a dominant win when they face Richmond at the MCG in Sunday’s Round 16 clash. The Crows sit 4th on the ladder and come in fresh from a bye, while the Tigers have tumbled to 17th after back-to-back thrashings — most recently a 79-point defeat to the Bulldogs. Richmond’s scoring woes continue as they rank last for points and inside 50s over the past five rounds, and they'll struggle to contain a powerful Adelaide forward line led by Taylor Walker and Darcy Fogarty. With Jordan Dawson and Rory Laird consistently racking up disposals and Adelaide boasting big recent wins against bottom-tier sides, expect the visitors to win comfortably — the 40+ margin is well in play.

Fremantle are tipped to extend their winning streak to six when they host a struggling St Kilda at Optus Stadium in Sunday’s Round 16 clash. The Dockers have surged into sixth on the ladder with a dominant run of form, built on elite defensive pressure and midfield strength led by Caleb Serong and Andrew Brayshaw. In contrast, the Saints have lost five of their past six and continue to battle with forward efficiency despite strong disposal numbers. Fremantle’s recent 41-point win over Essendon shows their attacking options are firing, while Jordan Clark looms as a reliable contributor again. Take the Dockers 1-39 and the under, with Fremantle’s tight defence likely to shut down St Kilda’s limited forward threat.