AFL Round 12 Tips & Preview - Best bets for the Round 12 of the AFL home and away season

ROUND 12

Brisbane will look to assert their dominance when they host Essendon at the GABBA on Thursday night to kick off Round 12. The Lions are in strong form after a convincing 33-point win over Hawthorn and boast an 8-2-1 record, with their midfield brigade—led by Lachie Neale, firing on all cylinders. Essendon, sitting at 6-4, impressed in their Dreamtime win over Richmond but continue to be plagued by injuries and have yet to defeat a top-eight side this season. Brisbane have won five of the past six meetings between the two teams, and with key players like Charlie Cameron and Neale in form, they’re expected to be too strong at home once again.

Collingwood will look to solidify their position at the top of the AFL ladder when they host Hawthorn under Friday night lights at the MCG in Round 12. The Magpies boast a 9-2 record and the league’s stingiest defence, coming off a dominant 45-point win over North Melbourne. In contrast, Hawthorn have dropped their past two and struggled against quality opposition, including a heavy defeat to Brisbane where inefficiency and lack of physical presence proved costly. While the Hawks have historically troubled Collingwood, including a 66-point win last season, the Magpies’ current form—led by Nick Daicos and Jamie Elliott—suggests they’ll control proceedings. Expect Collingwood to win in a low-scoring affair likely.

Gold Coast host the Fremantle Dockers, with the in-form Suns aiming to extend their unbeaten home streak. Sitting at 8-2, Gold Coast are enjoying their best-ever start to a season and come off a gritty 19-point win over St Kilda. With a powerful attack led by Ben King (31 goals) and a dominant midfield featuring Noah Anderson and Touk Miller, the Suns are tipped to have too much firepower for a Fremantle side missing key defender Alex Pearce due to suspension. The Dockers have shown signs of resurgence with back-to-back wins, but their inconsistency and the Suns’ elite inside-50 and scoring numbers make the home side strong favourites to cover the line in this one.

GWS will be aiming for a dominant home performance when they host Richmond at ENGIE Stadium. The Giants, sitting just inside the top eight with a 6-5 record, are coming off a strong 28-point win over Carlton and will be eyeing a percentage-boosting result. In contrast, Richmond’s woes continue, with a 3-8 record and significant struggles in key stats like disposals, clearances, and inside 50s. The Tigers have lost both interstate games this year by hefty margins and now face a Giants side that’s won four of their past five meetings at this venue. Expect GWS stars Tom Green and Jesse Hogan to shine, with Hogan already slotting 30 goals this season. Richmond’s injury list grows, and unless they produce a major turnaround, this one could get ugly.

The Sydney Swans will look to defy the odds and extend their dominance over the Adelaide Crows when they clash at the SCG. Despite a tough 2025 campaign marked by injuries and suspensions, the Swans have shown glimpses of resilience, including back-to-back home wins, while they also come in with a six-game winning streak against the Crows. Adelaide, currently sitting in the top four, enter the match in strong form after a dominant win over West Coast but have struggled in interstate games this season, losing three of four on the road. With Sydney’s home-ground advantage and Adelaide’s travel woes, this could be a closer contest than the ladder suggests. Expect key contributions from Isaac Heeney for the Swans and Rory Laird for the Crows.

Melbourne take on the St Kilda in a pivotal clash this Sunday at TIO Traeger Park, with the bounce set for 3:20 PM (AEST). The Demons are riding a wave of momentum, winning five of their last six—including a dominant 53-point victory over Sydney—while St Kilda have struggled, losing six of their past seven. Melbourne’s improved forward connection and scoring power, led by Christian Petracca and Kozzie Pickett, contrasts with St Kilda’s recent inefficiency in front of goal. With Melbourne having won the last five head-to-head matchups, expert predictions favour the Demons to notch another win, likely in the 1-39 point range.

Geelong are poised to wrap up Round 12 of the AFL with a commanding win over a struggling West Coast side at Optus Stadium. The Cats have hit form with two straight victories, including a gritty win over the Western Bulldogs, and come in as heavy favourites against an Eagles team that has managed just one win in 2025. Geelong, ranked 4th for scoring, have won their past five clashes against West Coast by an average of 68 points, with Jeremy Cameron in red-hot form, booting 13 goals in the past two rounds. Meanwhile, West Coast continue to battle injuries and inconsistency, ranking 17th for points scored and conceding heavy defeats regularly. Expect the Cats to cover the line comfortably, with Max Holmes and Cameron likely to feature prominently again.

Bye: Carlton, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs