AFL Round 11 Tips & Preview - Best bets for the Round 11 of the AFL home and away season

ROUND 11 (Sir Doug Nicholls Indigenous Round)

Round 11 kicks off with a blockbuster clash as the Western Bulldogs travel to GMHBA Stadium to take on Geelong, with both teams sitting at 6-4. The Bulldogs enter full of momentum after demolishing Essendon by 91 points, while the Cats comfortably accounted for Port Adelaide on the road. Despite Geelong’s home-ground advantage, the Bulldogs have won their past two at the venue and boast a powerful midfield and forward mix. Marcus Bontempelli and Bailey Dale are in elite form, while Rhylee West has 14 goals in his past five matches. With injuries to key Cats including Patrick Dangerfield, the Bulldogs are tipped to edge ahead in what promises to be a high-quality contest.

Essendon will be looking to bounce back in the marquee "Dreamtime at the G" clash on Friday night after a heavy loss to the Bulldogs last week. Despite that 91-point defeat, the Bombers remain 5-4 and have won five of their past seven, as well as the last two meetings with Richmond. The Tigers continue to struggle in 2025, coming off a narrow loss to North Melbourne and sitting 3-7 with the league’s lowest inside 50 count and second-worst scoring average. Essendon’s strength around the ball, led by Zach Merrett and Archie Roberts, should prove decisive, even if their forward efficiency remains a work in progress. Expect a tight battle early, but the Bombers have the midfield class and composure to edge clear and stay in the top-eight mix.

Carlton will be desperate to keep their finals hopes alive when they host the GWS Giants at Marvel Stadium on Friday night. The Blues, sitting at 4-6, are coming off a competitive loss to Sydney and have won four of their past six, despite inconsistency inside 50. The Giants, also under pressure at 5-5, have dropped four of their last five and struggled for scoring impact, averaging just 71 points over the past month. Patrick Cripps looms as a key figure for Carlton, having averaged 38 disposals in his past three matches against GWS, while Tom Green will be busy for the visitors. With better clearance numbers and home advantage, Carlton are tipped to get the job done and stay in touch with the top eight.

Hawthorn will look to extend their winning streak over Brisbane when they host the Lions at the MCG on Saturday in Round 11. The Hawks, sitting at 7-3, have won their last five meetings against Brisbane and boast strong home form, winning four of five at the MCG in 2025. Despite an eight-point loss to Gold Coast last week, Hawthorn will regain key players and have been a consistent scoring side this season, ranking 4th in points per game. Brisbane, on the other hand, are coming off an upset loss to Melbourne and have been inconsistent in recent weeks. With midfield battles expected to be tight, Hawthorn's edge in forward efficiency and home advantage could prove decisive in another close encounter.

North Melbourne will aim to challenge top-of-the-table Collingwood in Saturday night’s Round 11 clash at Marvel Stadium. The Kangaroos have shown clear improvement with a strong month of football, including a gritty four-point win over Richmond, and are expected to be competitive again. Collingwood, boasting the league’s best defence and riding an 8-2 record, have been in tight contests lately, with their last three games decided by 15 points or less. While the Magpies have won the past five meetings, North have the firepower to test them, especially through Nick Larkey, who has 14 goals in his last four against Collingwood. Expect a close contest, with the Roos tipped to cover the line.

Fremantle return to Optus Stadium in Round 11 looking to build on their strong 34-point win over GWS and push their record into positive territory. The Dockers are showing form at the right time, with midfield stars Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Serong dominating in recent weeks, while Josh Treacy continues to deliver up forward with 23 goals in 2025. Port Adelaide, meanwhile, are reeling from a heavy 76-point loss to Geelong and sit 4-6, struggling with injuries and form. The Power have averaged just 55 points across their last three games and will miss Jason Horne-Francis due to injury. While Port have won six of the last seven meetings, the Dockers are better placed this time, especially at home, and are tipped to get the job done.

Adelaide return to the Adelaide Oval on Sunday afternoon to face the struggling West Coast Eagles in Round 11, with the bounce set for 1:10 PM (AEST). The Crows are tipped to bounce back strongly from last week’s narrow loss to Collingwood, having won four of five at home this season and boasting the league’s third-highest scoring attack. West Coast broke their winless run with a victory over St Kilda but have lost their last eight games at the Adelaide Oval by an average of 62 points. Adelaide have dominated this matchup in recent years, winning the past five by an average of 63 points, and look set to cover a big line again, with Taylor Walker and Darcy Fogarty expected to hit the scoreboard

Melbourne and Sydney clash at the MCG in a pivotal Round 11 showdown, with both sides sitting at 4-6 and desperate to stay in finals contention. The Demons have found form with four wins from their past five, including a confidence-boosting upset over Brisbane, and will be buoyed by the red-hot form of Max Gawn and Christian Petracca. The Swans, meanwhile, come off a strong win over Carlton but have struggled away from home, losing their last three outside of Sydney. With Petracca’s strong record against the Swans and Kozzie Pickett a constant threat up forward, Melbourne are tipped to edge this one in the 1–39 margin bracket.

The Gold Coast Suns will look to overcome a poor head-to-head record against St Kilda when they meet at Marvel Stadium in Round 11 of the 2025 AFL season. Despite losing nine of their past ten clashes with the Saints, the Suns enter this matchup in strong form, sitting at 7-2 after edging Hawthorn in Round 10. In contrast, the struggling Saints have dropped five of their last six and became the first team to lose to West Coast this year. With the Suns leading the league in inside 50s and ranked second for scoring, their powerful midfield and dangerous forwards like Ben King and Ben Long give them a clear edge. Expect Jack Sinclair to be a key performer for St Kilda, but the in-form Suns are favoured to take the win.