AFL Round 1 Tips & Preview - Best bets for Round 1 of the 2026 AFL season

Carlton can bounce back from their heavy loss to Sydney with a Round 1 win over Richmond at the MCG. The Blues were overwhelmed in the second half at the SCG but their midfield remains one of the competition’s strongest, with Sam Walsh (32 disposals last week) and Patrick Cripps capable of controlling stoppages and territory. Richmond continue to rebuild with a youthful list and may struggle to sustain pressure against Carlton’s experienced midfield group. Tim Taranto should again find plenty of the football for the Tigers, but if Carlton generate repeat inside-50 entries their class should prove decisive in what shapes as a relatively low-scoring match.

Essendon can push Hawthorn in what shapes as one of the more intriguing contests of Round 1. The Bombers step out for the first time this season and will rely heavily on their midfield strength, with Darcy Parish and Zach Merrett capable of dominating clearance numbers. Hawthorn, meanwhile, will be looking to rebound after their Opening Round loss to GWS where their defensive transition was exposed. Dylan Moore and Karl Amon loom as key rebound players for the Hawks, but if Essendon’s midfield can generate consistent supply forward the Bombers are capable of keeping the contest tight and covering the line.

The Western Bulldogs can continue their strong start to the season with a win over GWS at Marvel Stadium. The Bulldogs showed their scoring power in their victory over Brisbane last week, with Marcus Bontempelli, Tom Liberatore and Ed Richards driving a midfield that consistently generates scoring opportunities. GWS impressed in their Opening Round win over Hawthorn, with Clayton Oliver and Jake Stringer both influential, but injuries to key players leave the Giants vulnerable against the Bulldogs’ depth. If the Bulldogs win the clearance battle and provide supply to Aaron Naughton and Sam Darcy, they should be able to produce another high-scoring victory.

Fremantle look capable of pushing Geelong in what shapes as one of the more intriguing contests of the round. The Cats were heavily beaten by Gold Coast last week and will need to tighten their midfield and defensive transition to avoid another upset. Fremantle possess one of the league’s strongest midfield duos in Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Serong, both of whom have consistently produced big disposal numbers against Geelong. If the Dockers can match the Cats in the contest and generate repeat entries, they have the midfield depth to challenge the home side at GMHBA Stadium.

Sydney look capable of continuing their early-season momentum with a win over Brisbane at the SCG. The Swans produced a dominant performance against Carlton last week, with Errol Gulden and Chad Warner controlling the midfield while Charlie Curnow and Joel Amartey provided a potent scoring presence. Brisbane remain one of the league’s strongest midfield sides through Lachie Neale and Will Ashcroft, but injuries and travel could test the reigning premiers. If Sydney’s midfield again controls territory and forward supply, the Swans should have enough scoring power to edge what shapes as a high-quality clash.

Collingwood’s midfield class and recent dominance at the MCG against Adelaide should see them claim victory in Round 1. Nick Daicos produced a standout performance last week with 41 disposals while Josh Daicos and Jordan De Goey also played key roles in controlling possession and generating scoring opportunities. Adelaide are still shaping their early-season identity and enter with a few key availability concerns, including Izak Rankine’s absence. That leaves the Crows slightly vulnerable against a Collingwood side that looks polished in front of goal, particularly through Jamie Elliott and De Goey, in what shapes as a lower-scoring game.

North Melbourne can pinch a close one against Port Adelaide in what shapes as one of the toughest games of the round to assess. The Kangaroos showed promising signs in the pre-season, particularly through Harry Sheezel and Luke Davies-Uniacke, while Nick Larkey remains a dangerous target inside 50. Port Adelaide still have plenty of midfield class through Zak Butters, Connor Rozee and Jason Horne-Francis, but their poor interstate form last season remains a concern. If North can hold up around the contest and generate enough forward entries, they are good enough to edge this at home.

St Kilda look well placed to continue their strong recent record against Melbourne with another win at the MCG. The Saints were solid despite their loss to Collingwood last week, with Jack Sinclair and Sam Flanders both finding plenty of the football, while Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera remains a major source of drive and creativity. Melbourne enter a new era with a significantly reshaped lineup and may take time to gel, particularly through the midfield where several younger players will shoulder extra responsibility. If the Saints control ball movement and territory, they should be able to take advantage of Melbourne’s inexperience.

Gold Coast should be far too strong for West Coast and can produce one of the bigger wins of the round. The Suns were outstanding against Geelong last week, with Noah Anderson, Christian Petracca and Jarrod Witts leading a midfield that dominated territory and set up repeated scoring opportunities, while Ben King again proved a major threat inside 50. West Coast remain deep in a rebuilding phase and were exposed badly in the pre-season when opposition sides sustained pressure and repeat entries. If Gold Coast bring the same intensity they showed against the Cats, this could get ugly quickly.