AFL Preliminary Finals Tips & Preview - Best bets for the Week 3 of the AFL Finals Series

Adam Cusworth provides his best bets for the four games taking place.

Friday night’s Preliminary Final at the MCG sees two fierce rivals clash for a spot in the 2025 AFL Grand Final — with Geelong chasing yet another big dance appearance, and Hawthorn daring to dream from 8th spot. The Hawks have defied history and expectations, taking down both GWS and ladder-leaders Adelaide in consecutive weeks, with Jack Gunston (70 goals for the season) and Jai Newcombe leading the charge. But standing in their way is a fresh and firing Geelong outfit, who dismantled Brisbane by 38 points in their Qualifying Final and have won 13 of their past 15 games. The Cats are brimming with firepower, kicking 100+ in seven straight, and boast a forward line headlined by Jeremy Cameron and breakout star Ollie Dempsey.

Tactically, Geelong’s forward pressure, midfield depth, and scoring efficiency pose a serious challenge for Hawthorn — especially if key players like Ginnivan and Dear are unavailable. While the Hawks will look to win the corridor battle and ride Gunston’s form again, the Cats’ ability to lock the ball in their half and generate repeat entries should wear down a banged-up Hawthorn side. Geelong have beaten the Hawks in their last four encounters and appear better suited structurally to handle the stakes. Expect the Cats to control the contest and march into another Grand Final, with betting angles favouring Geelong 1-39 and Ollie Dempsey to hit the scoreboard again.

The 2025 AFL Preliminary Final promises a blockbuster showdown between the Collingwood Magpies and Brisbane Lions at the MCG on Saturday evening. It’s a rematch of the 2023 Grand Final and a clash between two modern heavyweights. Collingwood enter the game fresh off a week’s rest following their 24-point win over Adelaide, having tightened up defensively after a late-season slump. Led by Darcy Moore in defence and Jamie Elliott up forward, the Magpies will look to control territory through intercepts and stoppages, aiming to restrict Brisbane’s fast-paced corridor play.

Brisbane, meanwhile, arrive in red-hot form after dismantling the Suns by 53 points in the Semi-Final, despite missing key stars like Lachie Neale and Eric Hipwood. The Lions boast a deep midfield and attacking mix, with Hugh McCluggage, Josh Dunkley, and the Ashcroft brothers providing engine room power, while Logan Morris and Kai Lohmann continue to shine in front of goal. Brisbane claimed victory in the sides’ Round 21 clash at the MCG and have won five of their past six at the venue, giving them the edge. With form, firepower, and recent history on their side, the Lions are tipped to roar into the Grand Final once again.