AFL Grand Finals Tips & Preview - Best bets for the 2025 AFL Grand Final between the Geelong Cats and Brisbane Lions

Adam Cusworth provides his best bets.

The 2025 AFL Grand Final pits Geelong and Brisbane against each other once more, and it has all the makings of a September classic. The Lions arrive as underdogs with a +12.5 start but are battle-hardened after finals wins over Gold Coast and Collingwood. Their explosive midfield, led by Josh Dunkley and Will Ashcroft, has found balance between contested ball and spread, while Cam Rayner and Zac Bailey have been livewires up forward. Brisbane’s pressure game is designed to keep the ball locked in their front half, and if they can sustain that against Geelong’s intercept-heavy defence, they will push the Cats deep into the contest.

Geelong, however, have looked like a juggernaut all season, riding a 14–2 run into the decider. They blitzed Brisbane in the Qualifying Final and comfortably accounted for Hawthorn in the Preliminary Final, with Patrick Dangerfield producing one of the great finals performances. The Cats’ ability to score heavily — 100+ points in eight straight — combined with the polish of Jeremy Cameron, Tyson Stengle, and breakout star Ollie Dempsey makes them favourites. Expect momentum swings and a fast, attacking style from both sides, with the value sitting on Brisbane to cover the line in what should be a high-scoring thriller.

Midfielders dominate Norm Smith history, but 2025 presents a wide-open field. Geelong’s Bailey Smith ($6) and Max Holmes ($7) sit atop betting, while Patrick Dangerfield ($7.50) looms after his Preliminary Final masterclass. For Brisbane, last year’s winner Will Ashcroft ($9) is again in contention, with Josh Dunkley ($11–$13) offering serious value given his record of 25+ disposals in six straight games against the Cats.

Jeremy Cameron ($13) is the standout non-midfield option — a proven match-winner who could easily turn the game with a four-goal haul. For those chasing value, Zac Bailey ($15+) and Ollie Dempsey ($20+) fit the Bobby Hill mould: explosive, scoreboard-impact players who don’t need 30 touches to win the medal. If Brisbane pinch the flag, Dunkley and Bailey are prime chances, but if Geelong salutes, Cameron could be the one to finally break the midfield dominance.

This year’s Grand Final is loaded with player markets worth exploring. For Brisbane, Josh Dunkley is the steady hand — he racks up disposals every time he faces Geelong and brings tackling pressure that suits finals footy. Will Ashcroft and Hugh McCluggage provide outside run, while Zac Bailey and Cam Rayner are X-factors who can hit the scoreboard early and swing momentum.

On Geelong’s side, Patrick Dangerfield looks primed for another big-stage performance, splitting his time between midfield dominance and scoreboard impact. Bailey Smith and Max Holmes offer reliable disposal numbers, while Jeremy Cameron is the Cats’ most dangerous forward and always a threat for multiple goals. Rising star Ollie Dempsey is the smoky, capable of bobbing up with a couple of game-shaping moments inside 50.

The mix of reliable ball-winners, explosive midfielders, and proven goalkickers ensures plenty of angles for building a multibet — with stars and smokeys on both sides ready to influence the biggest day of the season.

Grand Final openers can be a lottery, but a few names stand out in the market. Jeremy Cameron ($7.50) has been Geelong’s early go-to, kicking 88 for the season and repeatedly impacting in the first term, including in this year’s Qualifying Final. For Brisbane, Logan Morris ($10.50) has shown a knack for hitting the scoreboard early, while Cam Rayner and Charlie Cameron bring value in the $13–$16 bracket given their track records of striking early against Geelong. Ollie Dempsey looms as a smoky — the Rising Star winner has already hit the board early in two of the past three meetings with the Lions.

Punters looking for midfield value should note Zac Bailey, who kicked the Lions’ first in the 2023 Grand Final and has a habit of sparking runs with scoreboard impact. A staking split across Cameron, Bailey, Dempsey, and Morris covers both history and current form. Given 10 of the past 15 Grand Finals have seen a midfielder kick the opener, Bailey offers the best value of the bunch.