NRL Finals Week 2 Best Bets 2026: Semi-Final Tips and Predictions
The NRL Finals are down to six teams, with two sudden-death semi-finals deciding who advances to the final four.
The Sydney Roosters get another chance after pushing Penrith all the way in Week 1, while the Warriors return home looking to respond to their dramatic defeat against the Dolphins.
We're backing the Roosters to cover against Cronulla, while Newcastle can make things uncomfortable for New Zealand in Auckland.
Sydney Roosters vs Cronulla Sharks
Best Bet: Sydney Roosters -6.5
The Roosters came away empty-handed against Penrith last week, but there was plenty to like about their defensive performance in the 19-12 defeat. They kept the Panthers in a genuine contest until the closing stages despite completing just 73 percent of their sets, and another week of sudden-death football should bring an improvement with the ball.
Cronulla progressed with a 26-16 win over North Queensland, but it wasn't completely convincing. The Cowboys made 15 errors and completed less than 70 percent of their sets, yet the Sharks still struggled to turn their possession advantage into points for long periods.
The matchup also favours Sydney. The Roosters have beaten Cronulla twice already in 2026 and have won eight of the last 12 meetings. With the Sharks conceding an average of 24.6 points per game this season, the Roosters should finally get enough attacking opportunities to complement their defence and cover the -6.5 line.
New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights
Best Bet: Newcastle Knights +6.5
Newcastle showed exactly why they shouldn't be underestimated when they eliminated South Sydney 20-10 last week. The Knights entered the game missing several important players but controlled the contest, with Kalyn Ponga producing one of his best performances of the season and their young forwards standing up when Souths were expected to dominate through the middle.
The Warriors are a much tougher proposition in Auckland. They've won four straight against Newcastle, including both meetings this season by at least 14 points, and the Knights haven't beaten them in New Zealand since 2019.
However, there were some worrying signs in New Zealand's 26-16 loss to the Dolphins. The Warriors led 16-8 after an hour and enjoyed 55 percent possession, but missed 50 tackles as the Dolphins ripped the game away from them late.
New Zealand deserve to be favourites at home, but Newcastle have already shown they can handle sudden-death football. With Ponga capable of creating something from nothing and the Knights playing with confidence, +6.5 gives us enough protection to back them to keep this considerably closer than their two regular-season meetings.