Gold Coast Suns vs Port Adelaide Power Tips and Prediction
Gold Coast return to Darwin looking for a third straight win, but Port Adelaide shape as serious value in what should be a far tighter contest than the ladder suggests.
How this game shapes up
Gold Coast have tightened up defensively over the past fortnight after conceding 100+ points through large parts of April.
The
Suns have now restricted both GWS and St Kilda to just eight goals while improving their pressure and contest work around the football.
John Noble, Daniel Rioli and Bodhi Uwland continue to generate strong rebound from half-back, while Ben King remains one of the most dangerous key forwards in the competition.
Port Adelaide, meanwhile, continue to be one of the toughest teams in the AFL to put away despite sitting 3-6.
Four of the Power’s six losses have come by three points or less and their defence continues to hold up strongly under pressure.
Aliir Aliir has been outstanding across the past fortnight, while Zak Butters and Jason Horne-Francis continue to drive the midfield.
Mitch Georgiades also remains in elite form inside 50, kicking at least two goals in every match this season.
The Darwin conditions should suit Gold Coast’s running game, but Port’s ability to stay in contests through pressure and defensive structure shapes as a major factor.
This projects as a tighter and lower-scoring game than the market expects.
Best Bet
Port Adelaide +26.5
The Power continue to stay competitive against quality opposition and four of their six losses this season have come by three points or less.
Value Bet
Under 174.5 Total Points
Both sides have improved defensively in recent weeks and this shapes as a pressure-heavy contest in difficult Darwin conditions.
Player Prop
Zak Butters 30+ Disposals
Butters has now recorded 30+ disposals in eight straight matches and continues to dominate through the midfield.
What could go wrong?
If Gold Coast gain control through turnover and transition early, their speed and confidence in Darwin could quickly blow the margin open.