Brisbane Lions vs Collingwood Magpies Tips 2026: AFL Round 4 Predictions

A low-scoring contest is expected when the Brisbane Lions host the Collingwood Magpies at the Gabba in AFL Round 4.

Collingwood’s defensive structure has kept them competitive, but their inability to generate consistent scoring remains a major concern. The Magpies are averaging just over 70 points per game across their recent stretch and continue to struggle to convert inside 50 opportunities into scoreboard pressure.

Their current game style relies heavily on controlling possession and limiting opposition scoring, which has led to tighter, lower-scoring matches.

Brisbane, meanwhile, come into this clash off their first win of the season and remain one of the strongest clearance teams in the competition. The Lions’ ability to win contested ball and generate repeat entries inside 50 should allow them to gradually build scoreboard pressure, particularly at the Gabba.

However, Collingwood’s defensive approach is likely to restrict Brisbane’s scoring output as well, resulting in a controlled, contested matchup rather than a high-scoring shootout.

With both sides leaning on defensive systems and Collingwood’s scoring struggles continuing, the total points line appears set too high.

Both teams are expected to prioritise defensive structure, with Collingwood’s low scoring output and Brisbane’s controlled game style pointing towards a lower total.

Neale thrives in clearance-heavy matchups and has a strong record against Collingwood, making him a reliable ball-winner in this contest.

With Darcy Moore sidelined, Morris presents as a key forward option for Brisbane and should see increased opportunities inside 50.

If Brisbane dominate clearances early and convert efficiently, the game could open up more than expected and push the total higher.