AFL Week 1 Finals Tips & Preview - Best bets for the Week 1 of the AFL Finals Series

Adelaide and Collingwood square off in a blockbuster Qualifying Final at Adelaide Oval, with the ladder-leading Crows aiming to extend their 10-game winning streak and stamp their authority on September. Adelaide’s defensive steel and the form of forwards Riley Thilthorpe and Darcy Fogarty give them the edge despite the absence of Izak Rankine, while Ben Keays and James Peatling loom as key contributors. The Magpies, who stumbled late in the season with just two wins from their past seven, will rely heavily on Nick Daicos and Jamie Elliott but enter with injury concerns and a poor recent record against top-eight sides. With both teams defensively strong, expect a low-scoring contest where Adelaide’s consistency at home tips the balance their way in a tight battle.

Geelong and Brisbane clash in a mouth-watering Qualifying Final at the MCG, with the in-form Cats looking to halt the Lions’ recent dominance. Geelong have surged into September with 12 wins from their past 14 games, boasting the best percentage in the league and a healthy list led by spearhead Jeremy Cameron, who has 83 goals this season. Their blend of attacking firepower and defensive resilience makes them a genuine threat, while Bailey Smith and Max Holmes continue to drive their midfield. Brisbane arrive with confidence after seven wins from nine and three straight victories over the Cats, but their wayward goal kicking and defensive lapses remain concerns. With Lachie Neale set to return and Josh Dunkley a proven performer against Geelong, the Lions have weapons, but the Cats’ consistency and edge at the MCG suggest they may just sneak home in another thriller.

GWS and Hawthorn meet in a sudden-death Elimination Final at ENGIE Stadium, where the Giants look primed to extend their dominant home record against the Hawks. Adam Kingsley’s side has won nine of their past 10 matches and could be bolstered by the return of key names such as Josh Kelly, Jesse Hogan and Jake Stringer, while Lachie Whitfield and Tom Green continue to lead the way in transition and clearances. Toby Greene looms large up forward after nine goals in his past three, while Whitfield’s recent ball-winning form makes him another player to watch. Hawthorn bring pressure and have won eight of their past 11, but their struggles away from home – five straight interstate losses – and a poor record against top-eight sides leave them vulnerable. With the Giants unbeaten in six clashes at the venue, expect the Orange Tsunami to roll on and deliver the knockout blow to end the Hawks’ season.

Fremantle and Gold Coast lock horns in a high-stakes Elimination Final at Optus Stadium, with the Dockers looking to continue their remarkable late-season surge and the Suns chasing a fairytale first finals win. Freo stormed into September on the back of 12 wins from their last 14 games, built around their composed midfield led by Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Serong, while Patrick Voss and Josh Treacy provide plenty of punch up forward. The Suns arrive buoyed by Ben King’s hot form – 22 goals in his last five – and the midfield grunt of Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell, but their patchy 4-6 record against top-eight sides highlights the challenge ahead. With Fremantle unbeaten against Gold Coast at Optus and boasting one of the best defences in the competition, the Dockers look well-placed to edge this contest in front of their home crowd, though the Suns’ contested strength means it won’t come easy.