AFL Round 7 Tips & Preview - Best bets for every ANZAC Round clash

Sydney can pile more pain onto a battered Bulldogs outfit, with injuries to key pillars exposing them at stoppage and in transition, areas the Swans dominate. Without Tim English, the Dogs have been smashed at the coalface, and that plays directly into Brodie Grundy’s hands, giving Sydney first use and repeat inside 50s. Their ability to absorb pressure and surge the ball forward through players like Nick Blakey and Isaac Heeney should create scoreboard separation, especially against a side that has averaged just 60 points in its past two matches. Sydney to cover the line, with Charlie Curnow 2+ goals and Brodie Grundy 25+ disposals the key plays.

Melbourne look set to dominate from start to finish against a Richmond side that continues to be exposed by repeat entries and poor conversion. The Demons’ attacking shift under Steven King has unlocked their scoring power, hitting 100+ in four of six games, while Richmond are averaging just 59 points and have lost their past four by an average of 60. Expect Melbourne to control stoppage through Max Gawn, lock the ball in their forward half and steadily build a big margin. Melbourne -39.5, Max Gawn 25+ disposals and Jayden Short 25+ disposals are the strongest angles.

This shapes as one of the games of the round, with Hawthorn’s pressure game set to test Gold Coast’s star-studded midfield in a genuine top-four battle. The Hawks have won 10 straight at UTAS and thrive on forward-half territory and intercept play, which can disrupt the Suns’ ball movement and expose their defensive structure. Gold Coast will generate scoring through the 2025 Brownlow Medallist, Matt Rowell and Christian Petracca, but Hawthorn’s multiple forward threats and home-ground edge should prove decisive in a tight contest. Hawthorn head-to-head, Matt Rowell 30+ disposals and Nick Watson 2+ goals are the standout plays.

Expect a genuine ANZAC Day arm wrestle, with Essendon’s resurgence built on clearance work and pressure giving them every chance to push Collingwood deep into the fourth quarter. The Bombers have kicked 17 goals in consecutive weeks and now have multiple avenues to goal, while Collingwood continue to rely heavily on midfield dominance with scoring output still a concern. If Essendon can sustain their pressure for four quarters, they can stay within the number. Essendon +19.5, Zach Merrett 30+ disposals and Archie May 2+ goals all appeal.

Geelong can hand Port Adelaide another heavy defeat, with their system-driven game and depth set to expose the Power beyond their core midfield. While Zak Butters and Jason Horne-Francis will find plenty of the ball, Geelong’s ability to control territory and generate repeat inside 50s should overwhelm Port across four quarters. Jeremy Cameron looms as the key beneficiary after his recent scoring burst. Geelong -27.5, Jeremy Cameron 4+ goals and Ollie Wines 25+ disposals are the best angles.

This sets up as a low-scoring grind, with Fremantle’s control-based style and defensive structure dictating terms against a Carlton side that struggles to convert momentum into scoreboard pressure. The Dockers are comfortable winning through territory and system, while Carlton’s repeated fadeouts late in games suggest they can stay competitive but not finish the job. Expect a tight contest between the arcs with limited scoring bursts. Fremantle head-to-head, total points under, Sam Walsh 30+ disposals and Jordan Clark 25+ disposals are the strongest plays.

St Kilda should control this from a territory and defensive standpoint, with Ross Lyon’s system perfectly suited to restrict a West Coast side averaging just 50 points across the past three rounds. The Saints thrive in low-scoring contests and should dominate through their half-back distribution, particularly via Jack Sinclair. West Coast’s inefficiency inside 50 is likely to be exposed again. St Kilda head-to-head, total points under, Jack Sinclair 30+ disposals and Jack Higgins 2+ goals are the key selections.

This shapes as a tight, contested battle between two evenly matched sides, with Brisbane’s midfield depth and home-ground advantage giving them the edge in what should be another close finish. Adelaide’s games continue to be defined by small moments, while Brisbane will look to control territory and clean up their execution after last week’s loss. Expect an arm wrestle with scoring at a premium. Brisbane 1-39, total points under and Charlie Cameron 2+ goals stand out.

North Melbourne can prove great value here despite GWS favouritism, with their improved midfield depth and forward connection giving them every chance to match the Giants’ ball movement. GWS will generate opportunities through their “Orange Tsunami” style, but their inefficiency in front of goal remains a concern, while North’s contested work and scoring options can keep them in the fight. Expect a free-flowing, close contest. North Melbourne +17.5, Finn Callaghan 30+ disposals, Luke Parker 25+ disposals and Cooper Trembath 2+ goals are the best plays.