AFL Round 23 Tips & Preview - Best bets for the Round 23 of the AFL home and away season

Adam Cusworth provides his best bets for the nine games taking place.

St Kilda head into Friday night’s clash at Marvel Stadium chasing a fourth straight win, while Essendon are simply looking to stop the bleeding after 10 consecutive losses. The Saints have found ways to grind out close victories, and their recent record in tight contests makes them hard to overlook against a Bombers side ravaged by injuries and lacking forward cohesion. Jack Sinclair and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera continue to shine in midfield, while Jack Higgins has a great record against the Bombers, kicking 14 goals in his past five against them. With Essendon averaging just 52 points per game over the last five rounds, St Kilda look well-placed to claim another low-margin win.

Fremantle and Brisbane face off in a high-stakes clash on Friday night, with both sides sitting inside the top five and finals positioning on the line. The Dockers are flying with 11 wins from their last 12 and an imposing record at Optus Stadium, but Brisbane arrive desperate to respond after a shock two-point loss to Sydney — a match they dominated in key stats but failed to finish off. Despite missing Lachie Neale, the Lions have enough midfield depth and big-game experience to worry the home side, led by the in-form Will Ashcroft and a forward line spearheaded by Charlie Cameron, who has a strong record against Fremantle. With Caleb Serong in red-hot form for the Dockers and both sides capable of lifting, expect a fierce contest with September implications.

Gold Coast and GWS clash in a high-stakes Round 23 battle at People First Stadium, with both sides jostling for top-eight positions. The Suns have won six of their past seven and continue to dominate in clearances and inside 50s, but history is firmly against them — GWS have won 14 of their last 15 meetings, including the past five. The Giants were impressive in a 54-point win over North Melbourne last week and bring strong transition play and midfield depth into this contest. Expect a tight midfield duel between Noah Anderson and Tom Green, both in strong disposal form, while GWS captain Toby Greene looms as a key forward threat.

Carlton and Port Adelaide meet at Marvel Stadium in a Round 23 clash with pride on the line. The Blues have dropped seven of their last eight and continue to battle without key forward Charlie Curnow, despite encouraging efforts from Patrick Cripps and Francis Evans. Port Adelaide are also desperate to bounce back after four straight defeats, but showed signs of life in a narrow loss to Fremantle. With key players returning and a recent 50-point demolition of the Blues fresh in the memory, the Power look poised to strike again. Mitch Georgiades has made a habit of torching Carlton, while Butters and Wines continue to lead a strong midfield unit. Expect Port to lift and cover, with the over also in play on Marvel’s fast deck.

Hawthorn and Melbourne face off in Round 23 at the MCG, with the Hawks aiming to take a decisive step toward securing a finals berth. Sam Mitchell’s side has won seven of its last nine, including a dominant 64-point win over Collingwood last weekend, and already knocked off the Demons by 35 points earlier this season. While Melbourne are out of the finals race, they looked reinvigorated under interim leadership last week, narrowly going down to the Bulldogs. Despite their star-studded midfield, execution has continued to let them down. With Jack Gunston in red-hot form up forward and James Worpel consistently winning the footy, the in-form Hawks should be too strong in a contest they’re expected to win within 1–39 points.

Adelaide host Collingwood in a pivotal Round 23 clash with top spot on the line, and the Crows enter as firm favourites following 10 wins from their past 11 games and a nine-match unbeaten run at home. While they were far from their best against West Coast last week, Matthew Nicks’ side has been among the AFL’s most consistent performers in recent months — ranking top three for scoring, contested possessions, and defensive efficiency over the past five rounds. Collingwood, meanwhile, are sliding at the wrong time of the season, losing four of their last five, including back-to-back games where they’ve conceded 100+ points. Despite winning the past 10 meetings between the sides — including six straight at Adelaide Oval — the Pies' form has plummeted. Expect the in-form Crows, led by red-hot Riley Thilthorpe and Jordan Dawson, to finally break the hoodoo and claim a statement win heading into finals.

North Melbourne and Richmond square off in a battle between two struggling sides, but recent history favours the Kangaroos. They’ve won the past two encounters, including a four-point win earlier this year, and have never lost to the Tigers at Ninja Stadium. While both clubs sit near the foot of the ladder, North have shown more spark in recent weeks, with Harry Sheezel and Colby McKercher in strong form and Cam Zurhaar a proven match-winner against the Tigers. Richmond continue to struggle for scoreboard impact, averaging just 45 points across their last five games, and will need a big lift from their midfield leaders like Tim Taranto to stay competitive.

Sydney and Geelong face off in a finals-shaping clash at the SCG, with both sides bringing strong recent form into Round 23. The Swans have won five of their past six and continue to grind out wins despite lacking key forwards, relying on the class of Errol Gulden, Isaac Heeney, and Chad Warner. Meanwhile, Geelong have steamrolled lesser opposition and averaged over 100 points per game in their past 12, led by the red-hot Jeremy Cameron. But with the Swans’ midfield humming and their pressure game suited to the SCG, expect them to keep this tight. Back Sydney to cover the line, Gulden to find plenty of the ball, and Tyson Stengle to hit the scoreboard again.

The Western Bulldogs are expected to continue their demolition job on struggling sides when they face West Coast at Marvel Stadium on Sunday afternoon. The Dogs are 11-0 against teams outside the top eight in 2025, with seven of those wins coming by margins of 70 points or more. Led by Aaron Naughton’s red-hot form up forward — 29 goals in his past six games — and Marcus Bontempelli’s dominance through the middle and on the scoreboard, the Bulldogs boast the second-highest scoring attack in the league. West Coast, meanwhile, have lost 11 straight and rank last for disposals and clearances in the past five rounds. Despite a more competitive showing against Adelaide last week, the Eagles' lack of firepower and midfield depth leaves them vulnerable. Expect a commanding Dogs win with Naughton and Bontempelli likely to fill the stats sheet again.