AFL Round 20 Tips & Preview - Best bets for the Round 20 of the AFL home and away season

Hawthorn will look to solidify their top-four push when they host Carlton at the MCG on Thursday night, with the in-form Hawks winning five of their past six and boasting a dominant 10-1 record against bottom-half teams in 2025. Carlton snapped a four-game skid with a win over Melbourne last week but have struggled against quality opposition, going just 1-7 against top-eight sides this season. The Blues' scoring issues and poor ball use could be costly against a Hawks outfit that thrives off turnover and ranks among the league’s most efficient attacking sides. Expect Hawthorn to get the job done in a tight one, with Jai Newcombe a strong chance to hit 25+ disposals and Patrick Cripps continuing to lead the way for the Blues.

The Western Bulldogs are poised to pile more misery on a depleted and out-of-form Essendon side when they meet under the roof at Marvel Stadium on Friday night. The Bombers have dropped seven straight and continue to struggle up forward, averaging just 57 points per game in their past five. In contrast, the Bulldogs are the highest-scoring team in the league and have made a habit of bullying bottom-half sides — winning all nine such games in 2025 by an average of 53 points. With Aaron Naughton in hot form, Rhylee West a proven Bomber tormentor, and Tom Liberatore a clearance machine, expect the Dogs to dominate again and cover a big margin.

GWS will look to end Sydney’s finals hopes and reinforce their own top-eight standing when the cross-town rivals clash under lights at ENGIE Stadium on Friday night. The Giants have won seven of their last eight and boast a formidable record at home, driven by their elite ball movement from defence and midfield depth led by Tom Green and Finn Callaghan. Sydney, sitting 9-9 and clinging to finals hopes, have leaned heavily on Isaac Heeney’s heroics, with the star amassing 34 disposals and five goals last week. But with GWS in stronger form, more balanced across the ground, and dominant at this venue, expect the Giants to edge this with a 1–39 point win.

The Brisbane Lions look set to continue their dominance over the Gold Coast Suns in the upcoming QClash at People First Stadium. Brisbane, currently second on the ladder with four consecutive wins, boast a powerful midfield led by Will Ashcroft, Hugh McCluggage, and Dayne Zorko that consistently dominates clearances, disposals, and inside 50s. The Lions have won 12 of the last 13 encounters with the Suns, including a 17-point victory earlier this season, and their attacking duo, Will Ashcroft and Charlie Cameron—who recently kicked three goals against Gold Coast—pose a significant challenge for a Suns defense that has struggled against quick small forwards. Despite the Suns showing flashes of improvement, their inconsistency in forward execution and key injuries leave them vulnerable to Brisbane’s well-structured and professional side.

The Western Derby at Optus Stadium this Saturday looks set to continue Fremantle’s recent dominance over West Coast in what should be a largely one-sided affair. Fremantle come into the clash flying high, having won eight of their last nine games, with a balanced attack that goes beyond stars Josh Treacy and Jye Amiss, highlighted by Patrick Voss’s six-goal haul last week. Their midfield, led by Caleb Serong and Andrew Brayshaw, has been particularly damaging, with Serong averaging 35+ disposals against the Eagles this season. In contrast, West Coast are struggling badly, enduring an eight-game losing streak and ranking last for clearances and disposals, compounded by key forward injuries that have stifled their scoring potential. History favors the Dockers heavily, who have claimed seven of the past eight Derbies, and with Fremantle’s momentum and firepower, expect them to extend their dominance once again.

Geelong Cats look set to strengthen their top-four position with a dominant win over struggling North Melbourne Kangaroos at Marvel Stadium. The Cats, coming off a strong 31-point victory against St Kilda and boasting a 12-6 record, face a Kangaroos side that has lost four straight matches and conceded an average of 120 points in their last four games. With key forward Jeremy Cameron in red-hot form, having kicked 12 goals in his past three games against North, and Max Holmes consistently racking up 30+ disposals, Geelong’s firepower and midfield control should overwhelm a depleted North Melbourne lineup missing leading goalkicker Nick Larkey and dealing with injury woes. Historically dominant with 13 consecutive wins over North Melbourne, the Cats are expected to cruise to a big-margin victory.

The Showdown at Adelaide Oval this Saturday sees the Adelaide Crows riding a wave of momentum as they aim to assert dominance over a struggling Port Adelaide Power side. Adelaide have been in red-hot form, winning seven of their last eight matches and remaining unbeaten in six at home this season, while Port Adelaide are grappling with injuries and inconsistent performances, coming off a heavy 38-point loss to Hawthorn. The Crows’ potent attack, led by Taylor Walker—who has a strong recent record against Port—and a stingy defense that ranks second for fewest points conceded recently, gives them the edge. Although Zak Butters remains a key playmaker for the Power with strong disposal numbers in past Showdowns, Adelaide’s overall depth and recent results suggest they will comfortably cover the line in this high-stakes local rivalry.

Collingwood looks set to bounce back strongly against Richmond at the MCG on Sunday as they defend their narrow hold on top spot after two close losses. The Magpies boast the league’s best defense, conceding just 67 points per game over the past five rounds, and will rely on Nick Daicos, fresh off a massive 43-disposal game, and in-form forward Jamie Elliott, who has kicked nine goals in three games. Richmond, despite recent wins, have struggled to score consistently against quality opposition and are unlikely to break through Collingwood’s defensive wall, making a comfortable Magpies win by 40+ points the likely outcome.

St Kilda looks set to end their six-match losing streak when they face Melbourne at Marvel Stadium in Round 20. Both teams are out of finals contention and battling for pride, but St Kilda’s previous 28-point win over the Demons in Alice Springs this season gives them confidence. Key for the Saints will be Jack Sinclair, who’s in excellent form with multiple 25+ disposal games and a strong record against Melbourne. Meanwhile, Melbourne’s Max Gawn will be influential in the ruck, but the Demons have struggled with scoring efficiency and defensive structure. Given St Kilda’s competitiveness in recent close losses and their ability to match disposals, expect the Saints to edge a tight contest and make it two wins from two against Melbourne in 2025.