AFL Round 19 Tips & Preview - Best bets for the Round 19 of the AFL home and away season

GWS head into Thursday night’s clash against Essendon with confidence sky-high after knocking off second-placed Geelong, and they should have little trouble covering the line against a depleted Bombers outfit. The Giants have won six of their past seven, and their slick ball movement, elite defensive transition, and midfield depth have made them one of the most dangerous sides in the competition. With up to 14 Bombers sidelined through injury, Essendon are struggling to find scoring power and have averaged just 60 points across their last five matches. Expect the likes of Tom Green and Lachie Ash to dominate the disposals again, while Aaron Cadman and Jesse Hogan loom as serious threats against a vulnerable Essendon backline. Unless the Bombers can produce a miracle effort at Marvel, GWS should cruise to a comfortable win.

It’s crunch time for the Western Bulldogs as they travel north to face a red-hot Brisbane Lions outfit on Friday night. While the Lions enter this Round 19 clash on a three-game winning streak and boast a formidable record at home, the Bulldogs’ attacking form and midfield strength suggest they can keep things close. Marcus Bontempelli and Ed Richards lead a Dogs midfield that can match Brisbane at the contest, while Aaron Naughton and Sam Darcy are in strong form up forward. The Lions, however, will test the Bulldogs’ shaky defence with relentless pressure and forward potency, led by Eric Hipwood and Charlie Cameron. Expect a fierce contest with Brisbane likely to edge ahead late, but the Dogs can stay within single digits.

This Saturday’s AFL clash at UTAS Stadium sees Hawthorn sitting 6th with an 11-6 record, face a hungry Port Adelaide Power side eager to extend their dominant recent run against the Hawks. Port Adelaide has won the past four encounters, led by their powerful midfield trio of Zak Butters, Ollie Wines, and Jason Horne-Francis, who have consistently troubled Hawthorn. The Hawks have been strong at UTAS, undefeated there this season and have conceded an average of just 65 points in their last five matches. Expect a tight, hard-fought contest fuelled by midfield battles—Butters looks set to rack up 30+ disposals again, while Jai Newcombe will be key for Hawthorn with 25+ touches. 

Sydney will be desperate to keep their finals hopes alive when they host North Melbourne at the SCG on Saturday. The Swans are coming off a thrilling five-point win over St Kilda, led by clutch final-quarter plays from Errol Gulden and Will Hayward, and now face a North side that has shown flashes of promise but continues to struggle defensively. The Kangaroos have conceded an average of 135 points across their last three games and were no match for Melbourne in a 36-point loss last week. While Cam Zurhaar and Cooper Harvey have been strong up forward, the Swans’ midfield class, particularly from Gulden and Isaac Heeney, should prove too much. Sydney have won nine straight against North and with the finals race heating up, expect them to cover the line and extend that streak.

Two struggling sides meet at the MCG on Saturday evening. Both teams sit at 6–11. Carlton have been heavily scrutinised in recent times and were no match for Brisbane last weekend but did have the edge in contested ball and clearances. Melbourne ended a five-game skid with a win over North Melbourne, but continue to struggle for consistency around the ground and rank poorly for pressure acts, tackling, and forward efficiency. Carlton have won the last three meetings between these two sides – all by under five points – and with George Hewett and Patrick Cripps in strong midfield form the Blues look a solid tip to grind out an upset win.

West Coast and Richmond square off in a bottom-of-the-ladder battle at Optus Stadium on Saturday, and this shapes as the Eagles’ best chance yet to grab their second win of 2025. Despite just one victory all season, West Coast showed signs of life last week, leading Port Adelaide early in the final term. With Harley Reid coming off a season-best 27-disposal effort and the Tigers ranking last in disposals, inside 50s, and scoring over the past five rounds, the home side has every chance to secure a rare win. Richmond scraped past a depleted Essendon in a 46-37 scrap last week, but have struggled to fire outside Victoria. Expect Harley Reid to shine again, with Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper to keep the Tigers in it through the midfield.

Geelong will aim to maintain their fortress at GMHBA Stadium when they face St Kilda in Round 19, having won their last 12 at the venue against the Saints, dating back to 1999. While St Kilda have taken the last two head-to-heads, including a Round 2 win, recent form favours the Cats, who sit 4th on the ladder despite a narrow loss to GWS. Geelong continue to dominate inside 50s and metres gained, with Jeremy Cameron and Shannon Neale looming large up forward, while Bailey Smith is a strong chance for 30+ disposals. St Kilda have lost eight of their last nine and continue to struggle in attack, though Marcus Windhager and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera provide midfield spark. Expect the Cats to bounce back with a win in the 1–39 point range.

Fremantle are well and truly in the finals hunt and will test the premiership-contending Magpies when the two sides clash at the MCG on Sunday afternoon. The Dockers have won seven of their past eight and bring elite defensive pressure – shown in their 103 tackles last weekend – into a game that could be decided by intensity around the ball. Collingwood remain stingy defensively, conceding just 64 points per game across the past five rounds, but their undermanned backline and slow starts open the door for an upset. Jamie Elliott has dominated Fremantle in recent years and could again be the difference if the game is tight late. Expect the Dockers to cover the line in what should be a low-scoring, hard-fought contest.

Adelaide return to the Adelaide Oval with their sights set on a seventh consecutive home win, as they face a confident Gold Coast Suns side fresh off an upset win over Collingwood. The Crows remain unbeaten against the Suns at the venue and have won six of their last seven overall, making them one of the form sides in the competition. Riley Thilthorpe booted a career-high six goals last week and looms as a major threat again, while Jordan Dawson’s leadership and consistency continues to anchor the Crows' midfield. Gold Coast will miss Touk Miller but boast midfield strength in Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell, and have shown they can hang tough in tight contests – 11 of their past 12 matches have been decided by 39 points or fewer. Adelaide’s edge at home, however, should prove the difference. Expect a close game, but the Crows to get the job done by 1–39 points.