AFL Round 17 Tips & Preview - Best bets for the Round 17 of the AFL home and away season

Adam Cusworth provides his best bets for the seven games taking place.

The Western Bulldogs head into Thursday night’s AFL Round 17 clash at Marvel Stadium as heavy favourites against North Melbourne, with a dominant recent record and scoring firepower to match. The Bulldogs, sitting sixth on the ladder have won eight straight against the Kangaroos by an average margin of 54. Sam Darcy has been in electric form since returning from injury with 11 goals in three games, supported by Aaron Naughton, while Marcus Bontempelli continues to dominate through the middle. North Melbourne had shown signs of improvement but were demolished by Hawthorn last round, leaking 150 points. While they’ve been strong at clearances and boast form from Nick Larkey and Colby McKercher, the absence of George Wardlaw and poor defensive form spell trouble. Expect another high-scoring Dogs win, with their key forwards likely to do the damage again.

Collingwood head into Friday night’s Round 17 blockbuster at the MCG as firm favourites against a Carlton side in freefall. The Blues are under mounting pressure after a 50-point drubbing by Port Adelaide, their fourth loss in six games, and continue to struggle with scoring, averaging just 71 points across the past eight rounds. In contrast, the ladder-leading Magpies have won seven straight and remain the best defensive unit in the league, with Josh and Nick Daicos driving their engine room. Collingwood have claimed six of the past seven in this fierce rivalry, including a 17-point win earlier this season, and should have little trouble covering the line against a depleted and low-confidence Carlton outfit. Look for Josh Daicos to notch 30+ disposals again, while George Hewett may be one of few Blues to hold his own. Expect Collingwood to control the tempo and extend their winning streak.

GWS head west on Friday night to face bottom-placed West Coast at Optus Stadium in a must-win Round 17 clash as they push for a return to the top eight. The Giants, fresh from a bye and back-to-back wins over Brisbane and Gold Coast, boast superior form and ball movement, with Jesse Hogan and Aaron Cadman in strong goal-kicking touch. Hogan, in particular, looms large after kicking nine goals in the 81-point win over West Coast earlier this season and 16 in his last four against them. While the Eagles have shown some late-season grit — their past three losses have been under 40 points — they continue to struggle up forward without key targets. Mid-season recruit Tom McCarthy is a bright spot with 60 disposals in two games, and Finn Callaghan shapes as a major influence for GWS through the middle. Expect GWS to get the job done, with West Coast potentially keeping it within a 1–39 point margin.

Essendon and Gold Coast face off in a crucial Round 17 AFL clash at Marvel Stadium on Saturday, with both sides eyeing consistency as the finals race heats up. The Bombers have been hit hard by injuries but regain key defensive reinforcements in Jordan Ridley and Zach Reid, hoping to arrest a four-game losing streak. Despite leading the league in disposals, Essendon’s forward inefficiency remains a concern. Gold Coast, fresh off snapping a three-game skid with a win over Melbourne, sit inside the top eight but continue to struggle in Melbourne, with just one win at Marvel Stadium over the Bombers in 15 years. Expect a contested midfield battle led by Zach Merrett and Noah Anderson, while Ben King looms as the Suns’ major threat up forward. Essendon should keep it tight, but the Suns' scoring edge might prove decisive.

Geelong are primed to dish out a heavy defeat to a depleted Richmond side when the two teams meet at GMHBA Stadium on Saturday in AFL Round 17. The 4th-placed Cats return from the bye with fresh legs and firepower across the field, led by in-form stars Jeremy Cameron — who has slotted 28 goals in his past six games — and midfield engines Max Holmes and Bailey Smith. Richmond, on the other hand, have lost six straight, including their last two by 68 points or more, and enter without suspended forward Tom Lynch. With the Tigers struggling for disposals, clearances, and inside 50s, expect Geelong’s potent offence to pile on the goals. The Cats should comfortably cover the line, with Cameron a strong bet for 4+ goals and Holmes set for another big disposal tally.

Brisbane and Port Adelaide clash in a high-stakes AFL Round 17 encounter at the GABBA on Saturday, with both sides looking to solidify their top-eight credentials. The Lions, fresh from a dominant 41-point away win over Geelong and a week’s rest, are expected to assert themselves early, especially with their clearance strength and forward depth. Logan Morris and Eric Hipwood loom large in attack, while Will Ashcroft continues to rack up disposals through the middle. Port Adelaide have won three of their past four but have struggled against top-tier opposition, with heavy losses outside Adelaide a concern. Mitch Georgiades and Zak Butters are in strong form, but the Power’s poor recent record against Brisbane — including an 89-point hammering last year — makes this a tough road trip. Expect Brisbane to control the contest and cover the line at home.

Hawthorn head into Saturday night’s Round 17 clash against St Kilda at Marvel Stadium with strong momentum and a clear edge in form, having won their past three games, including a dominant 85-point victory over North Melbourne. The Hawks' attacking duo of Jack Gunston and Mabior Chol have been in top form, combining for 22 goals in recent weeks, while their midfield is firing through Karl Amon and Jai Newcombe. In contrast, St Kilda have lost six of their last seven, struggled to find a consistent forward target, and dropped their past three at Marvel. With finals on the line and greater scoring power, Hawthorn are well-placed to take the win and cover the line.

Fremantle Dockers head to the SCG in hot form for Sunday’s AFL Round 17 clash against the Sydney Swans, chasing their seventh consecutive win. The Dockers have proven strong on the road recently, with interstate victories over GWS and Gold Coast, and they’ve won their last two against Sydney at this venue. With Caleb Serong and Luke Jackson looming as key players, Freo’s efficiency and ability to restrict opposition scoring could again prove decisive. Sydney have regained key players like Errol Gulden and Tom Papley, but goalkicking remains a concern, especially with the Swans holding a poor 2-5 home record in 2025. Expect a tight contest, but Fremantle's form and structure give them the edge.

Adelaide are well-positioned to continue their late-season surge with a win over the out-of-form Melbourne Demons in Sunday’s Round 17 clash at Adelaide Oval. The Crows have won four of their last five and sit in third spot, thanks to elite midfield output, dominant inside 50 numbers, and a host of forward threats including Riley Thilthorpe and Josh Rachele. In contrast, Melbourne have dropped four straight and continue to be plagued by forward inefficiency, despite solid clearance work from Max Gawn and ball-winning efforts from Christian Petracca. With Jordan Dawson leading the charge through the middle and Adelaide’s attacking unit firing, expect the Crows to cover the line and maintain momentum heading into the business end of the season.