AFL Round 11 Tips 2026: Best Bets, Predictions & Betting Tips

AFL Round 11 Tips 2026: Best Bets for Every Game

Round 11 looks like a tricky betting card, but the model workbook does identify clear value in every matchup.

The strongest plays come through the totals market early in the round, with Hawthorn vs Adelaide and Richmond vs Essendon both projecting well above the current number. There is also strong line value with Collingwood against West Coast, Sydney as the underdog against Geelong, and Gold Coast despite some concerns from the podcast about North Melbourne’s response.

Here are the best bets for every AFL Round 11 game.

This shapes as one of the more entertaining games of the round. Adelaide are building nicely after winning four of their last five, while Hawthorn still play a brand of footy that opens games right up. Even with the Hawks wobbling a little around stoppages lately, this still feels like a matchup where both sides can put points on the board.

Dreamtime always feels unpredictable and this year is no different. Richmond have probably been playing slightly better footy recently despite the injuries piling up, while Essendon have shown enough in patches to stay dangerous. Picking a winner is tough, but the better angle looks to be backing a game with plenty of scoring.

Fremantle should still win, but this feels like a bit of a danger game. St Kilda have made life awkward for the Dockers before and are capable of dragging this into a tight, scrappy contest. That makes the disposal under for Jordan Clark a nice fit rather than trying to trust Fremantle at the line.

North Melbourne should respond after last week’s belting, but Gold Coast still look the stronger side overall. Marvel Stadium has not always been a happy hunting ground for the Suns, although they have enough class to control this game if they get on top early.

This has game-of-the-round potential. Geelong are in excellent form after strong wins over Collingwood and Brisbane, but Sydney still look more than capable of matching them. The Cats can absolutely win at home, though the line feels just a touch too wide.

There is a lot of attention around Scott Pendelbury's record breaking match & Harley Reid’s 50th game, but this still looks heavily one-sided. West Coast have struggled defensively all year and Collingwood should get plenty of chances going forward. Even with such a big spread, the Magpies still look the right side.

Both of these sides are playing better footy than their ladder position suggests, which makes this a tricky game to line up. Carlton looked refreshed last week, but Port Adelaide have quietly improved over the past month as well. At home, the Power look worth backing.

GWS just have not looked quite right lately, especially after the loss to West Coast. Brisbane were disappointing against Geelong, but it would not be a surprise at all to see them bounce back strongly here. Getting more than two goals start with the Lions feels generous.

Melbourne are clearly in better form right now and look full of confidence after knocking off Hawthorn. The Bulldogs, on the other hand, are starting to slide a little. Still, with such a short line, taking the Dogs with the small head start feels like the safer betting play.