AFL Finals Week 1 Tips 2026: Best Bets for Every Game
The AFL Finals are here, and the opening week gives us four very different betting opportunities. Fremantle and Brisbane look like the two sides most capable of making a statement, while the elimination finals have us leaning towards the underdogs with the start.
Here are our best bets for all four games in Week 1 of the 2026 AFL Finals.
Fremantle vs Hawthorn
Best Bet: Fremantle -14.5
Fremantle haven't entered September in their best form, but a return to Optus Stadium and the return of several rested players makes them difficult to oppose. The Dockers have won four of their past five against Hawthorn, including by 15 points earlier this season, while the Hawks have had a relatively soft run into the finals. Fremantle should be challenged early before their depth takes over, making the -14.5 line appealing.
Geelong vs Carlton
Best Bet: Carlton +5.5
Geelong enter the finals on a six-game winning streak, but Carlton are arguably carrying the better form into this elimination final. The Blues have beaten Brisbane, Fremantle and Melbourne during their recent surge and have also won four of their past five meetings with Geelong. The Cats' finals experience could ultimately get them home, but Carlton getting more than a goal looks valuable in what should be one of the closest games of the weekend.
Sydney vs Brisbane
Best Bet: Brisbane -25.5
Sydney have been outstanding at the SCG this season, but Brisbane look ready for another serious premiership run. The Lions have won four of their past five and finished the regular season by smashing Collingwood by 63 points, while Hugh McCluggage should return after being managed late in the year. Brisbane also beat Sydney by 43 points in their most recent meeting, and their midfield depth gives them a strong chance of covering the -25.5.
Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs
Best Bet: Western Bulldogs +15.5
Adelaide deserve favouritism at home, but the Bulldogs showed in the Wildcard Round that they shouldn't be underestimated. They pushed through Collingwood, drew with Carlton before that and beat Melbourne in Round 24, while they have already won at Adelaide Oval this season. The Crows can advance, but the Dogs are playing well enough to keep this inside three goals.