2026 State of Origin Game 1 Tips, First Tryscorer & Man of the Match Predictions
- NSW favoured for Game 1 at Accor Stadium due to experience & continuity.
- Top predictions: NSW 1-12 in a low-scoring match; Brian To’o first try; Tedesco/Grant for MOTM.
- Queensland’s new combinations may struggle against NSW’s settled squad.
James Tedesco of the Blues celebrates scoring a try with teammates. (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
2026 State of Origin Game 1 Tips, First Tryscorer & Man of the Match Predictions
State of Origin is finally back and Game 1 of the 2026 series shapes as one of the most fascinating openers in recent memory.
- 2026 State of Origin Game 1 Tips, First Tryscorer & Man of the Match Predictions
- Why NSW Hold the Edge in Game 1
- Best Match Bets
- Best First Tryscorer Picks
- Brian To’o (NSW)
- Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (QLD)
- Haumole Olakau’atu (NSW)
- Man of the Match Predictions
- Harry Grant (QLD)
- James Tedesco (NSW)
NSW enter Accor Stadium as deserved favourites thanks to a more settled spine, greater forward depth and the return of James Tedesco at fullback, while Queensland arrive with fresh combinations and several major selection calls following Tom Dearden’s injury.
The Blues are tipped to start the series strongly, but as always with Origin, individual brilliance can turn the game in seconds.
Why NSW Hold the Edge in Game 1
The biggest advantage for NSW heading into this clash is continuity.
Nathan Cleary and Mitch Moses give the Blues arguably the best kicking and game-management pairing, while their forward rotation looks built for the faster six-again style that continues to shape modern football.
Queensland still possess plenty of danger through Harry Grant, Cameron Munster and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, but the Maroons’ new-look spine may need time to settle under Origin intensity.
History also supports the Blues in tighter Game 1 contests. Six of the last eight series openers have finished with 1-12 margins, while nine of the last 15 Origin games have stayed Under 42.5 total points.
That points strongly towards another physical grind at Accor Stadium.
Best Match Bets
- NSW 1-12
- Under 42.5 Total Points
Best First Tryscorer Picks
Outside backs continue to dominate the first tryscorer market in Origin football.
Wingers and centres have combined for 19 first tries across the last 27 Origin matches, while NSW have scored first in seven of the last nine Game 1 clashes.
Brian To’o (NSW)
Brian To’o is impossible to ignore in this market.
The Blues winger scored in every Origin game last year and crossed first in Game 1 before bagging a hat-trick in Game 2. He now has eight tries across his last seven Origin appearances and remains NSW’s most reliable finishing weapon.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (QLD)
The Hammer returns to the centres for Queensland and still owns one of the best strike-rates in Origin football.
If Queensland score early through broken play or transition attack, Tabuai-Fidow is the Maroons player most likely to finish it.
Haumole Olakau’atu (NSW)
For roughie value, Haumole Olakau’atu stands out.
The Manly edge forward has been devastating under the quicker modern rules and shapes as a major red-zone threat against tired defenders.
Man of the Match Predictions
Historically, the Man of the Match award has shifted heavily towards halves and middle forwards.
Since 2017, forwards and halves have dominated the award count, with prop forwards winning two of the last three Game 1 medals.
Harry Grant (QLD)
If Queensland pull the upset, Harry Grant will likely be central to it.
His speed around the ruck and ability to capitalise on momentum swings makes him arguably the most dangerous player in the modern Origin arena.
James Tedesco (NSW)
James Tedesco has already won three Origin Man of the Match awards and returns with a point to prove after reclaiming the NSW fullback jersey.
If the Blues control possession and tempo, Tedesco’s support play and running game could easily headline the night.
Verdict
NSW look the stronger and more settled side heading into Game 1 and are tipped to grind out another tight Origin win at Accor Stadium.
The best betting angle remains NSW 1-12 in a low-scoring contest, while Brian To’o and James Tedesco headline the key player markets.
The best betting angle remains NSW 1-12 in a low-scoring contest, while Brian To’o and James Tedesco headline the key player markets.
NSW 1-12
Winning Margin
@190.00 - 2 Units
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Under 42.5
Game Total
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Brian To'o
Anytime Tryscorer
@-105.26 - 2 Units
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James Tedesco
Man of the Match
@550.00 - 1 Unit
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