2026 State of Origin Predictions, Series Preview & Schedule – Can NSW secure the Series in Melbourne?

NSW won Game 1 on the bell thanks to a stunning James Tedesco try against a 12-man QLD team. Kalyn Ponga was sent off with 23 minutes remaining in the game and the Blues trailing 20-6. 

Now the story shifts to Game 2 in Melbourne and all the variables that contributed to the result in Sydney are being weighed up to try and predict a result.

The Blues hold a 1-0 series lead. Whether it was because QLD were undermanned or not doesn't matter. If they win Game 2 the series is done.

The debate will rage on for the rest of the year whether or not Kalyn Ponga deserved to be sent off and whether NSW would have made the comeback if QLD had 13 men on the park for the final 10 minutes of the game.

The same could be said reagrding the copious amount of dropped ball the Blues had in the first half which granted the Maroons opportunities to score points. It is more likely that NSW are more disciplined in their attack this time around and the weather won't play as large a role.

The Maroons were outstanding in the first half, well up until the point when Ponga was sent from the field. They defended with passion, took their scoring opportunites and looked like the better side. 

They forced errors from the Blues in their own half and were the more dominant team for the majority of the match. This is a large chance of happening again and the changes in the Blues forward rotations point to NSW trying to manage that domination.

QLD also have better finishers on the edges. If it comes down to a 1 try game, QLD are more equipped to be able to produce a moment of individual brilliance that gets them across the line.