2026 State of Origin Predictions, Series Preview & Schedule – Can NSW Reclaim the Shield?

Queensland stunned New South Wales once again in 2025, recovering from a disastrous opening game loss to claim the series 2-1 and reinforce the Maroons’ reputation for thriving under pressure.

Now attention turns to the 2026 State of Origin series, where the Blues head in as deserved favourites but with plenty of pressure firmly back on their shoulders.

Tom Dearden’s injury has dramatically shifted the early betting market and leaves Queensland with a massive question mark in the halves. Meanwhile NSW enter the series with enviable depth across the spine, middle rotation and outside backs, giving Laurie Daley some huge selection decisions before Game 1.

The early expectation is that New South Wales finally regain the shield, but Origin has never been that simple.

On paper, this looks like the deepest Blues squad in several years.

The emergence and consistency of players like Dylan Edwards, Casey McLean, Stephen Crichton and Hudson Young gives NSW genuine strength across the park, while experienced stars such as Nathan Cleary and Isaah Yeo remain the backbone of the side.

Queensland enter the series needing to restructure their spine following Dearden’s injury, while NSW already have combinations established throughout key positions.

Home-ground momentum, travel fatigue and short preparation windows have repeatedly shaped series outcomes over the last decade. Current betting markets reflect that reality, with NSW expected to open around the $1.65 mark for the series winner market.

Writing Queensland off has historically been one of the quickest ways to lose money betting on Origin.

Even without Dearden, the Maroons still possess elite match-winners capable of swinging moments and matches. Cameron Munster remains the emotional heartbeat of the side and will likely carry even more responsibility in attack. Harry Grant, Reece Walsh and Patrick Carrigan also provide genuine game-breaking upside.

Queensland’s biggest challenge will be settling on the correct halves combination early enough to build chemistry before Game 1. If Billy Slater finds the right balance quickly, the Maroons absolutely remain capable of forcing another tight series.

The likely scenario is that Queensland pinch one game through emotion, momentum and Suncorp energy, but over three matches NSW appear to have the stronger overall roster.

That’s why NSW 2-1 currently shapes as the strongest early series prediction.