Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights NRL Grand Final Betting Guide 2026
The Sydney Roosters and Newcastle Knights will meet at Accor Stadium on Sunday night with the 2026 NRL Premiership on the line.
The Roosters enter as favourites after finding their best football at exactly the right time, but Newcastle have spent the entire finals series proving they are capable of upsetting anyone.
Twelve months after collecting the wooden spoon, the Knights have won three consecutive sudden-death finals to reach the decider. They beat South Sydney 20-10, edged the Warriors 12-10 in Auckland and then produced their best performance of the season to eliminate Penrith 22-14.
The Roosters took a different route. After losing their qualifying final to Penrith, they smashed Cronulla 46-10 before beating the Dolphins 36-20 in their preliminary final.
Sydney should probably win, but winning and covering a 7.5-point line are two very different things.
Here are our best bets for the 2026 NRL Grand Final including game winner, anytime and first tryscorers as well as Clive Churchill Medal. See also our list of Top NRL Bookmakers in Australia.
Roosters vs Knights Best Bet
Newcastle Knights +7.5
The Roosters deserve favouritism, but Newcastle getting more than a converted try looks difficult to ignore. Sydney have won the last six meetings between these clubs, yet four of the last five have been decided by four points or fewer.
Their Round 21 meeting is particularly relevant. The Roosters escaped Newcastle with a 23-22 victory courtesy of a late Daly Cherry-Evans field goal, despite the Knights playing without Kalyn Ponga and losing players during the match.
Newcastle have since taken their defence to another level conceding only 34 points across three sudden-death finals and produced an extraordinary defensive effort against Penrith, keeping the Panthers scoreless throughout the second half despite playing with 12 men.
The Roosters have the experience advantage and more Grand Final exposure throughout their side, but Newcastle have shown enough over the past month to suggest they can keep this close.
Prediction: Sydney Roosters to win, Newcastle Knights +7.5 to cover.
NRL Grand Final Anytime Try Scorer Tips
Dominic Young Anytime Try Scorer
Young enters the Grand Final in excellent try-scoring form and knows the Roosters extremely well.
He has scored in four consecutive games and brings the size and finishing ability to punish Sydney whenever Newcastle create space on his edge.
The Knights don't need to dominate possession for Young to become involved. One clean attacking set or break from Ponga and Newcastle suddenly have one of the competition's most dangerous finishers waiting out wide.
Daniel Tupou Anytime Try Scorer
At the other end, Daniel Tupou remains one of Sydney's most reliable attacking targets.
Tupou has crossed in two straight matches and three of his last four, while his aerial ability gives Sam Walker and Daly Cherry-Evans an obvious option whenever the Roosters attack Newcastle's line.
Grand Finals often come down to taking limited opportunities, and few wingers have been better at doing exactly that throughout their careers.
NRL Grand Final First Try Scorer Tips
First try scorer markets are always difficult, particularly in a Grand Final, but the Roosters bring one compelling trend into the decider because they have scored the opening try in their last 11 matches when starting as favourites.
That puts their attacking weapons firmly in play.
Best First Try Scorer Tip: Mark Nawaqanitawase
Nawaqanitawase enters Sunday as our leading first try scorer selection. He has scored 20 tries from 22 appearances this season and five across his past three games, including the opening try against the Dolphins in the preliminary final.
The matchup on his edge also appeals with Walker and Cherry-Evans controlling the kicking game, expect the Roosters to test Newcastle under the high ball and give Nawaqanitawase opportunities to use his size in the air.
Fletcher Sharpe First Try Scorer
Fletcher Sharpe provides a higher-priced option for Newcastle. Sharpe has scored 13 tries this season and his support play makes him particularly dangerous whenever Ponga or Bradman Best breaks through the first defensive line.
Rather than needing Newcastle to manufacture a conventional edge opportunity, Sharpe can appear around the ball and turn a half-break into six points.
Lindsay Collins First Try Scorer
Want a genuine Grand Final roughie?
Lindsay Collins has only scored three NRL tries this season, but there has been a pattern to when they have arrived. The Roosters prop crossed first against Cronulla, scored for Queensland during State of Origin and found the line again in the preliminary final against the Dolphins.
If Sydney earn an early attacking set close to Newcastle's line, Collins crashing through the middle is worth considering at a big price.
2026 Clive Churchill Medal Tips
The Clive Churchill Medal is awarded to the best player on the ground in the NRL Grand Final.
Recent history provides a pretty clear starting point when looking for a bet given each of the past five winners has played for the premiership-winning team, while four of those five were either a halfback or fullback.
That brings the two most influential attacking players in Sunday's Grand Final straight into consideration.
Sam Walker Clive Churchill Medal
Sometimes the obvious selection is obvious for a reason. Walker has been central to the Roosters attack throughout 2026, producing 11 tries, 22 try assists and 22 line-break assists from 22 appearances.
James Tedesco and Daly Cherry-Evans give Sydney other genuine contenders, but Walker has the attacking involvement to put himself at the centre of the biggest moments.
If the Roosters win and Walker creates the opportunities that eventually break Newcastle's defence, he should be firmly in the medal conversation.
Kalyn Ponga Clive Churchill Medal
If Newcastle complete one of the most remarkable season turnarounds in recent NRL history, Ponga is the player we want onside. Despite playing only 18 matches this season, the Newcastle fullback has recorded five tries, 14 try assists and 15 line breaks.
He has also produced 97 tackle breaks while averaging 167 running metres per game.
More importantly, Newcastle's chances of winning this Grand Final are closely connected to Ponga creating something Sydney cannot defend.
If the Knights cause the upset, there is every chance their fullback has played a major role in making it happen.