Richmond 2026 Season Preview: The Kids Are Driving Now

Richmond’s 2025 wasn’t “good”, but it was meaningful.

They were written off as winless, punched Carlton in Round 1, banked five wins for the year, and more importantly gave a heap of kids real AFL minutes. Under Adem Yze, the Tigers started building habits, not headlines. That matters more than the ladder spot.

The 2026 question is simple: was 2025 a foundation season, or a small spike before a harder second dip?

This is a development season with standards.

Richmond don’t need to chase finals talk. They need to keep the game style stable, get continuity into their young core, and stop the inevitable bad patches from turning into bad months.

If the kids come through and the spine holds up, Richmond can stay annoying and dangerous. If injuries hit again, or the back half loses structure, they’ll slide back quickly.

The midfield growth is the story.

Not “how many disposals”, but how quickly Richmond can turn talent into repeatable territory. Sam Lalor and Josh Smillie are the headline names, but the bigger win is building a clear pecking order: who starts, who rotates, who plays forward, and who gets protected minutes.

The other lever is defensive stability. If Gibcus is genuinely back and Balta plays like a leader, Richmond’s young defenders get to develop inside a system instead of inside a fire drill.

It breaks down if Richmond chase development without structure.

Throwing too many teenagers into the same line at once can look exciting for a month, then collapse when opposition teams start targeting matchups. Yze has to stagger the kids, keep some mature balance through the spine, and avoid the temptation to “see what happens” for four quarters.

There is also an obvious risk point: if Balta is inconsistent again, Richmond’s defensive group becomes a confidence rollercoaster.

Can Richmond turn “effort” into pressure that actually travels?

That’s their club-specific equation. Effort without repeat pressure just creates chaos behind the ball. Richmond’s best version is when their smalls lock it in, their midfield can surge forward, and the backline isn’t defending wave after wave.

If Maurice Rioli can become a genuine two-way pressure forward week to week, not highlight to highlight, Richmond’s whole system looks sharper.

Richmond remain a volatility team.

They can be a strong underdog bet in high-energy matchups where they can hunt and swarm, and a risky favourite when they’re expected to control tempo. Early season markets will often underrate their effort spikes, then overrate them after one or two eye-catching wins.

They’re a team to price by role selection and pressure indicators, not just last week’s margin.

Richmond’s realistic range sits between 12th and 17th.

The “better” outcome is driven by continuity: Smillie available, Gibcus playing a real block of games, and the forward pressure staying consistent. The “worse” outcome is the list getting thinned again and the kids being asked to carry structure they’re not ready to carry yet.

Either way, 2026 is about building the next core and doing it properly.