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Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks Tips and Prediction AFL Round 1 2026

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: 11 Mar 2026

Ryan Tucker 11 Mar 2026

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The game will be played at MCG on Friday 13th March, with the bounce at 7:40 PM (AEDT)
Hawthorn aims to recover from an opening loss with structured play.
Essendon fields a young, energetic, yet inconsistent team.
Key players like Mabior Chol are expected to impact the scoreboard.

Expired

Mabior Chol of the Hawks celebrates kicking a goal (Photo by Matt King/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks Tips and Prediction

Hawthorn head to the MCG looking to bounce back after their Opening Round loss, while Essendon begin another season that feels more about development than results.

Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks Tips and Prediction
How this game shapes up
Best Bets
Hawthorn Hawks -29.5
Mabior Chol 3+ Goals
What could go wrong?
Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 1 FAQ’s

The Hawks look further along the curve, and that gap could show as the game wears on.

How this game shapes up

Hawthorn were slow out of the gates against GWS last week but once they settled the signs were still there. This is a team that moves the ball quickly and punishes mistakes, which is exactly the kind of style that can cause problems for younger sides.

Essendon are clearly rebuilding. The Bombers finished near the bottom last season and now have one of the youngest lists in the league, which means there will be moments of energy but also plenty of inconsistency.

That’s usually the type of matchup where things stay competitive early before the more settled side takes control.

Best Bets

Hawthorn Hawks -29.5

Hawthorn’s strength is turning opposition mistakes into quick scores, and Essendon struggled badly in that area last season. If the Bombers cough the ball up through the middle of the ground, the Hawks have the players to make them pay.

Mabior Chol 3+ Goals

Chol already looks comfortable in Hawthorn’s forward setup and hit the scoreboard in Opening Round. Against a Bombers defence still finding its feet, he should see enough chances inside 50.

What could go wrong?

Essendon’s young players could bring plenty of early energy, especially at the MCG, and that can sometimes keep games closer than expected for longer than the market thinks.

Hawthorn also took time to warm up last week, and another slow start would make covering a big line a little uncomfortable.

Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 1 FAQ’s

How to watch Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 1?

You can watch the Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 1 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 1?

To buy tickets to the Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 1 game check the AFL website or the official Essendon Bombers site.

Verdict

Essendon Bombers v Hawthorn Hawks

This feels like the type of game where Essendon compete early before Hawthorn’s structure and experience take over.
If that script plays out, the Hawks should eventually pull clear with Mabior Chol hitting the scoreboard along the way.

Hawthorn -29.5

Line

@-111.11 - 3 Units

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Over 186.5

Game Total

@-111.11 - 2 Units

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M Chol 3+

Goals

@200.00 - 1 Unit

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J Newcombe 25+

Disposals

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