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Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions Tips and Prediction AFL Round 8 2026

Ryan Tucker

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Brisbane Lions predicted to surpass 113.5 team points vs Essendon.
Essendon’s weak defense and Brisbane’s scoring power are key factors.
Charlie Cameron and multiple forwards are strong bets for multiple goals.
The game will be played at Marvel Stadium on Saturday, 2nd May, with the bounce at 12:35 PM (AEDT)

Charlie Cameron of the Lions. (Photo by Albert Perez/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions Tips and Prediction

Brisbane head into this matchup as one of the form teams in the competition and face an Essendon side still searching for consistency across four quarters.

Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions Tips and Prediction
How this game shapes up
Best Bets
Brisbane Over 113.5 Team Total
Over 50.5 Total Scoring Shots
Charlie Cameron 3+ Goals
Same Game Multi: Morris, Cameron, Bailey 2+ Goals
What could go wrong?

Best Bet: Brisbane Over 113.5 Team Total

How this game shapes up

This matchup presents a clear contrast in profiles.

Brisbane are operating at a high level on both sides of the ball. Their recent win over Adelaide highlighted their ability to control games through midfield dominance and sustained pressure. Once they established control, their scoring followed quickly, particularly through a decisive third-quarter surge.

Essendon, by comparison, continue to struggle defensively. They were competitive for a half against Collingwood before being overrun after the main break, conceding heavily as the game opened up.

That pattern has been consistent. The Bombers have shown an ability to stay in contests early but have found it difficult to maintain structure and resist sustained pressure from stronger sides.

This is where Brisbane’s strengths are likely to become decisive.

The Lions generate a high volume of inside 50 entries and rank among the competition leaders in points from turnover. Their midfield, led by Lachie Neale and supported by a deep rotation, consistently wins territory and creates repeat opportunities.

Essendon’s defensive numbers suggest they will struggle to contain that level of pressure. They are conceding over 110 points per game, and against a side that moves the ball efficiently and converts at a strong rate, that trend is likely to continue.

Rather than focusing on the margin, the clearer angle lies in Brisbane’s scoring output.

Best Bets

Brisbane Over 113.5 Team Total

The Lions’ scoring profile aligns strongly with Essendon’s defensive struggles. If Brisbane control territory as expected, they should generate enough opportunities to exceed this number.

Over 50.5 Total Scoring Shots

Both the expected game script and statistical profile point towards a high volume of forward entries and scoring attempts.

Charlie Cameron 3+ Goals

Cameron remains a central figure in Brisbane’s forward structure and is well placed to capitalise on repeat inside 50s.

Same Game Multi: Morris, Cameron, Bailey 2+ Goals

Brisbane’s forward spread creates multiple scoring avenues, making this combination a viable option.

What could go wrong?

If Essendon are able to slow the game down and limit Brisbane’s transition opportunities, it could reduce the overall scoring volume. However, their recent performances suggest sustaining that approach for four quarters will be difficult.

Verdict

Essendon Bombers v Brisbane Lions

Brisbane’s ability to generate repeat forward entries and convert efficiently should be the defining factor in this matchup.
Essendon may remain competitive early, but over the course of the game the Lions’ attacking output is likely to build. The strongest angle is Brisbane’s team total rather than the margin.

Lions over 113.5

Team Total

@-111.11 - 2 Units

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Over 50.5

Scoring Shots

@-125.00 - 3 Units

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C Cameron 3+

Goals

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Morris-Cameron-Bailey

2+ Goals SGM

@350.00 - 1 Unit

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