AFL Wildcard Finals Tips 2026: Best Bets & Predictions

The home-and-away season is finished, but before the AFL Finals officially get underway we have two knockout games to decide the final two places in September.

Western Bulldogs face Collingwood on Friday night before Melbourne and Carlton meet at the MCG on Saturday, with the losers finished for 2026.

With only two games on the card, we have gone a little deeper than our regular weekly AFL tips, finding our best bet plus a couple of extra betting angles for each Wildcard Final.

There has been almost nothing between these sides recently, with the past four meetings alternating winners and the Bulldogs taking their Round 12 clash by just four points.

The Dogs enter off a good win over Melbourne, but injuries to their tall stocks are a concern heading into a knockout final. Collingwood have their own availability issues, although their attack has improved considerably late in the season and their experienced core has been here plenty of times before.

This looks like a game that stays tight deep into the final quarter, but we are backing the Pies to find a way.

Seven of the Bulldogs' past nine games have finished below 169.5, as have seven of the past nine meetings between these teams. With the Dogs increasingly relying on their defensive structure and finals pressure likely to ramp up, the Under appeals.

Membrey kicked three against the Bulldogs earlier this season and has multiple goals in three of his past five. In what could be a difficult night for forwards, he looks Collingwood's best avenue to goal.

Carlton's turnaround has been remarkable, going from 1-8 to a Wildcard Final, but we think the market has gone slightly too far in making the Blues favourites here.

Melbourne have won 10 of their 12 games at the MCG this season, including a 100-77 victory over Carlton in Round 2. The biggest advantage should come through the middle, where the Demons rank first in the AFL for centre clearances and have Max Gawn giving their midfielders first use.

Carlton are absolutely capable of continuing their incredible run, but at underdog odds we are siding with Melbourne at their favourite ground.

This goes against the recent head-to-head trend, but there are reasons to expect something different this time. Melbourne have been excellent at generating forward entries and are one of the competition's more accurate teams, while six of eight finals last season finished Over their respective totals.

If Carlton can make this a genuine contest, there should be enough scoring from both sides to clear 173.5.

Petty enters the Wildcard round in outstanding form with 15 goals across his past five matches, reaching three or more in four of them. With Melbourne expected to generate plenty of opportunities from their midfield advantage, we are happy to ride the hot hand.