Ranking Every AFL Finals Team From Least to Most Likely to Win the 2026 Premiership
The AFL finals are here, and with the expanded September format there are still 10 clubs dreaming of a premiership.
But not all finals teams are created equal.
Some enter September carrying major injury concerns. Others face brutal paths just to reach a preliminary final. Then there are Fremantle and Brisbane, who have separated themselves as the two teams most likely to be standing on Grand Final day.
Based on the latest True Footy discussion, here is our ranking of the 10 remaining teams from least to most likely to win the 2026 AFL premiership.
10. Western Bulldogs
The Bulldogs are dangerous enough to win their wildcard clash, but asking them to win the premiership is another story.
Their offensive numbers are the biggest concern. Despite the talent available, the Dogs ranked 14th for offence, while injuries to Sam Darcy and concerns around Tim English, Aaron Naughton and Marcus Bontempelli make their September task even harder.
They could beat Collingwood. Winning another three or four finals after that feels extremely unlikely.
9. Sydney Swans
Sydney would normally be nowhere near ninth on a list like this.
Their problem is availability.
The Swans enter September without five first-choice players, including several of their most important stars. Their emotional win over North Melbourne showed there is still plenty of fight in this group, and finishing inside the top four gives them a valuable second chance.
But sustaining that through an entire finals campaign looks incredibly difficult.
8. Melbourne Demons
Melbourne's late-season resurgence made them one of the AFL's most intriguing teams, but their loss to the Bulldogs completely changed their finals path.
They now begin with Carlton in what looks close to a 50-50 game. Survive that and an away final against Adelaide could follow.
Missing key players only makes the assignment harder.
The Demons are good enough to cause damage, but their pathway leaves almost no room for error.
7. Collingwood Magpies
Never completely write off Collingwood in September.
The Magpies remain defensively strong, experienced and possess arguably the competition's best player. Their potential pathway isn't terrible either. Beat the Bulldogs and an Adelaide trip could follow, where Collingwood have enjoyed considerable success.
The problem is their record against the very best.
Collingwood managed only one win against top-six opposition this season. They can make life uncomfortable for anyone, but eventually they will need to actually beat the premiership heavyweights.
6. Adelaide Crows
Izak Rankine makes Adelaide much more interesting this September.
The Crows didn't have him available during last year's finals campaign, and he now enters this series playing some of the best football of his career.
Their record against the top sides remains the concern. Adelaide went 2-5 against top-six opposition and still haven't consistently demonstrated they can beat elite teams away from home.
A preliminary final is possible.
Winning the premiership from there feels like another level entirely.
5. Carlton Blues
Carlton might be the most dangerous wildcard team in the competition.
Since Round 10, the Blues have produced the best record in the AFL, going 11-2 with a draw. More importantly, they have completely transformed the way they play under Josh Fraser.
Early in the season Carlton were No.1 from stoppage but 18th from turnover. Their transition game has since improved dramatically, giving them an attacking dimension they simply didn't have before.
Their potential path also keeps them at the MCG deep into September.
The problem is mathematics. Winning five consecutive knockout finals is an enormous ask.
Still, nobody will want to play them.
4. Hawthorn Hawks
The Hawks enter September inside the top four, yet there are legitimate reasons to be nervous.
Their recent football hasn't been convincing, Brisbane exposed them badly and there are questions about whether their forward structure will translate as effectively into finals.
Everything could change in week one.
Beat Fremantle in Perth and Hawthorn suddenly earn a home preliminary final and become one of the premiership favourites.
Lose, and a potential meeting with Geelong followed by Brisbane at the Gabba makes their path significantly more dangerous.
3. Geelong Cats
Here we go again.
Geelong spend portions of seemingly every season looking vulnerable before September arrives and they suddenly become terrifying.
Their record against the competition's best stacks up. The Cats went 4-4 against top-six opposition and have beaten Fremantle, Adelaide, Brisbane and Sydney during the season.
Jeremy Cameron's fitness remains important, while there are also questions around Max Holmes and Gryan Miers.
But we've seen Geelong manage seasons like this before.
If they get their best team close to healthy, nobody should be surprised if they're playing on preliminary final weekend again.
2. Brisbane Lions
Brisbane might be the hardest team in the AFL to analyse.
Their season-long statistical profile isn't particularly impressive and defensively they have shown far more vulnerability than you'd expect from a premiership favourite.
Then they decide to switch it on.
We've seen it repeatedly.
Brisbane's recent premiership teams have developed an ability to produce their best football when the stakes are highest, and that experience becomes enormously valuable in September.
If this becomes a Fremantle-Brisbane Grand Final, the Lions will enter knowing something Fremantle don't.
They've already done it.
1. Fremantle Dockers
Fremantle deserve to enter September as the team to beat.
The Dockers have been the most complete and consistent side across the season, pairing a top-five offence with the No.1 defence in the AFL.
That's a premiership profile.
There have been hiccups, including three losses across their final eight matches, and their lack of deep finals experience creates the obvious question.
But eventually every premiership team has to win its first one.
Fremantle's list is good enough, their defence is elite and their path should keep them away from interstate travel until Grand Final day.
The biggest test would likely be Brisbane.
The Lions have experience. Fremantle have consistency.
Right now, we're giving the Dockers the slightest edge.
Premiership prediction: Fremantle.
AFL Premiership Contender Rankings
| Rank | Club | Premiership Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fremantle Dockers | 🏆 Favourite |
| 2 | Brisbane Lions | 🏆 Favourite |
| 3 | Geelong | Strong contender |
| 4 | Hawthorn | Strong contender |
| 5 | Carlton | Dangerous outsider |
| 6 | Adelaide Crows | Outsider |
| 7 | Collingwood | Outsider |
| 8 | Melbourne Demons | Long shot |
| 9 | Sydney Swans | Long shot |
| 10 | Western Bulldogs | Long shot |
