AFL Grand Final Tips 2026: Best Bets for Fremantle vs Brisbane

Rather than overcomplicating Grand Final day, we have picked our best bet across four of the biggest markets. That means one match bet, one Norm Smith Medal selection, one Same Game Multi and one first goalscorer tip for Fremantle vs Brisbane.

Brisbane deserve to start favourites after reaching a fourth consecutive Grand Final, but giving Fremantle more than a goal looks enough to side with the Dockers.

Fremantle's ability to generate territory has held up throughout September, and they dominated the inside-50 count 67-49 against Sydney despite needing a huge comeback to win. They also beat Brisbane by 25 points at the Gabba earlier this season. Brisbane's finals experience is difficult to ignore, but in a game we expect to remain close, Fremantle +8.5 gives us valuable breathing room.

There are plenty of obvious candidates near the top of the Norm Smith market, but Andrew Brayshaw offers a more appealing price if Fremantle can win their first premiership.

Brayshaw enters the Grand Final after a team-high 29 disposals against Sydney and was influential as Fremantle took control of the Preliminary Final late. His ability to accumulate the footy, apply pressure and influence the contest across four quarters gives him the type of all-round game that can attract Norm Smith votes if the Dockers get up.

If Brisbane are going to win a third consecutive premiership, their attacking weapons should feature heavily.

Charlie Cameron has kicked at least two goals in nine of his past 10 games against Fremantle, while Zac Bailey has recorded 28+ disposals in each of his past two meetings with the Dockers. Brisbane's three finals have also produced an average combined score of 239 points, giving the Over 189.5 leg some appeal in what could become an open Grand Final if both teams take their chances.

First goalscorer betting always involves plenty of luck, but Oscar Allen is an interesting option at a much bigger price than Brisbane's leading forwards.

Allen has kicked 23 goals from 14 appearances this season, averaging 1.64 per game despite sharing a forward line with plenty of other scoring threats. Logan Morris, Charlie Cameron and Kai Lohmann should attract plenty of attention from Fremantle's defence, potentially leaving Allen with an early opportunity if Brisbane win the first clean entry inside 50.